USDCNH: The short-term will continue to drop

Fundamental analysis:

The State Administration of Taxation held a press conference today on the implementation of the tax refund policy. According to reports, as of September 20, a total of new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax rebates have exceeded 3.4 trillion yuan. Specifically, from January 1 to September 20 this year, the value-added tax credits refunded to the taxpayer’s account amounted to 2,211.3 billion yuan, of which, by industry, the manufacturing tax rebate was 581.8 billion yuan, accounting for 26.3% , is the industry that has benefited the most. In terms of enterprise scale, small and micro enterprises are the main beneficiaries. Among the taxpayers who have received tax rebates, 92% are small and micro enterprises, with a total tax rebate of 890.2 billion yuan.

USDCNH daily chart:

A brief technical analysis:

From the daily chart: the short-term exchange rate continues to fall, and the demand for adjustment is strong, the MACD is running on the 0-axis but the volume can start to shrink, and the RSI is beginning to weaken.

Long-short turning point: 7.0500

Resistance: 7.1500 7.2500

Support level: 6.9500 6.8500

Trading strategy: above 7.0500, bullish, target price at 7.1500, 7.2500

Alternative strategy: below 7.0500, bearish, target price is 6.9500, 6.8500