USDCNH: RMB depreciation continues

Fundamental analysis:

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50% - 3.75% in November is 32.5%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 67.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%; By December, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 30.0%, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 64.9%, and the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 150 basis points is 5.0%

USD/RMB USDCNH daily line chart:

Technical analysis:

The daily chart shows that the short-term exchange rate continues to rise without any sign of adjustment. The MACD runs on the 0 axis and the volume can continue to increase. The RSI continues to rise. It is expected that the short-term exchange rate will rise further after the settlement.

Empty turning point: 7.0500

Resistance level: 7.1500 7.2500

Support position: 6.9500 6.8500

Trading strategy: above 7.0500, bullish, target prices are 7.1500 and 7.2500

Alternative strategy: bearish below 7.0500, with target prices of 6.9500 and 6.8500