USDCAD: Focus on whether the suppression is effective

Fundamental analysis:

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25% - 4.50% in December is 71.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 28.9%; By February next year, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 75 basis points is 33.5%, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 15.3%

USD CAD daily chart:

Technical analysis:

The daily chart shows that the short-term exchange rate continues to rebound. MACD operates under the 0 axis but the volume can continue to shrink. RSI rebounds slightly and rises. It is expected that the short-term exchange rate will further decline after the rebound.

Empty turning point: 1.3450

Resistance level: 1.3650 1.3850

Support position: 1.3250 1.3000

Trading strategy: bearish below 1.3450, with target prices of 1.3250 and 1.3000

Alternative strategy: bullish above 1.3550, with target prices of 1.3850 and 1.4050