According to the latest data, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by nearly 500,000 in January, exceeding market expectations by as much as 200%.
This is undoubtedly a piece of good news for Fed hawks.
The surge in non-farm payrolls will prompt the Fed to further sound the hawk's horn - because this can provide sufficient policy endorsement for the Fed to continue to collect water.
This should be just the beginning.
Under the fact that the herd immunity is low, the U.S. economy and employment performance will enter a prosperous era by the middle of this year at the latest. Of course, this prosperous era is actually short-lived in the historical dimension.
However, the prosperity of the US economy will bring unavoidable psychological pressure to the Chinese economy in the same period - just as the relatively stable Chinese economy in the past two years, especially the prosperity of exports, has put psychological pressure on the US economy in the same period.
Note that under the circumstances of the era of strong involution, to discuss a country's economy, it must be compared on a global scale to have real meaning, and to discuss the current Chinese economy, it must be compared with the United States in the same period to have real meaning.
The strong recovery of the U.S. economy will lead to a change in the face of the U.S. policy toward China. In fact, it has already manifested in the past two months, and it will intensify in the future.
In the past two years, especially in the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, the US policy toward China has partially eased.
This is actually an expedient measure for the United States. During the epidemic, the demand side of the United States was out of order, requiring cost-effective Chinese manufacturing. During the epidemic, the US currency was loose without bottom line, and it also required cost-effective Chinese assets (especially A shares) to lock in the expected wool.
Of course, judging from the results, China has not wasted the opportunity of the epidemic in the past two years. While meeting the global basic demand, new energy has reached the highest level in the world, which has laid a solid foundation for the output of high value-added production capacity in the next step.
At the same time, in the face of the crazy influx of US dollars, China has carried out structural chip hedging by virtue of the registration system, expansion and fixed increase, and the Beijing Stock Exchange. American capital has not harvested any wool in A-shares.
Back to the topic.
The strong recovery of the U.S. economy this year with a high probability will prompt the U.S. to adjust its China policy, and the previous partial easing will likely turn into overall strength.
Discussing only the economic aspect:
1. The U.S.’s stuttering of Chinese technology will not only continue, but may also expand in scope.
The United States will not give up on those that cannot get stuck. For example, in the field of new energy, which is becoming increasingly powerful in China, the United States may make a variety of so-called trade sanctions tricks.
2. RCEP, which undermines China's use of boats to go to sea and indirectly breaks through US trade containment, especially the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area that was actually established under the framework of RCEP.
RCEP is a sticking point for the United States. In the past two years, the United States has been unable to take care of itself. After herd immunity this year, the United States should free up its hands to destroy and interfere with RCEP. The breakthrough may be Japan and South Korea, its traditional allies.
3. Interfere with the cooperation between China and the oil giants in the Middle East, thereby sniping the general trend of the RMB oil alliance.
At present, China and the oil giants in the Middle East are still in the stage of love, and there is still a process to go before the honeymoon stage at the factual level.
Although it is the general trend for the world to move towards low carbon and environmental protection, it is also the general trend to reduce the absolute dependence on the US dollar for global transactions and settlements. However, the United States will not be reconciled to the gradual separation of the US dollar oil alliance. Therefore, this year will definitely interfere with the cooperation between China and the oil giants in the Middle East. The breakthrough is likely to be Saudi Arabia.
You are mad as you are, and the breeze blows the hills!
Faced with the high probability of a change in the face of the US's China policy this year, China will definitely respond calmly with me as the mainstay. Just like the Trump era, it will not be rhythmized by the US.
The Federal Reserve will increase its water collection, and China's central mother will gradually release water slightly.
The Fed's increase in water withdrawal will lead to a further sharp decline in high-level US stocks. The shocking slump of Meta (Facebook) during the Spring Festival is an obvious signal. This year is not optimistic for US stocks with a large proportion of conceptual imagination.
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Indonesia
2022-02-09
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