U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 467,000 in January, the largest increase since October last year, significantly higher than market expectations of 150,000, data from the U.S. Labor Department showed on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls for December were also revised up to 510,000 from an initial 199,000.
The U.S. job market ushered in a "good start" in 2022: 467,000 new non-agricultural jobs in January far exceeded expectations
In terms of other sub-indicators, the unemployment rate in the United States recorded 4% in January, compared with the previous value of 3.9%, and the unemployment rate rebounded for the first time since June 2021.
The employment participation rate edged up to 62.2% in January from 61.9% in the previous month. While still below pre-pandemic levels, it has improved significantly from a low of 60.2% during the pandemic.
It is worth mentioning that this employment report also shows that the average hourly earnings in the United States in January increased significantly by 5.7% year-on-year, far exceeding the market's expectation of 5.2%, and significantly higher than the previous value of 4.7%. Soaring wages could lead the FOMC to lean toward a more aggressive end to monetary easing amid fears of a wage-price spiral similar to the 1970s.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor said employment gains were recorded in the U.S. leisure and hospitality, professional and service industries, retail trade, transportation and warehousing industries.
After the release of the non-agricultural data in January, the global financial market quickly reacted with a knee-jerk reaction. Among them, the US dollar index soared more than 30 points in the short-term, refreshing the intraday high of 95.62.
The U.S. job market ushered in a "good start" in 2022: 467,000 new non-agricultural jobs in January far exceeded expectations
U.S. 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields rose to new highs this year. The real yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose above zero.
The U.S. job market ushered in a "good start" in 2022: 467,000 new non-agricultural jobs in January far exceeded expectations
The spot gold price fell sharply in the short-term, hitting the $1,800/oz mark. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was at 21:39 on February 4th, Beijing time, and 2,251 lots were traded in one minute, with a total value of USD 405 million.
U.S. stock futures also fell short-term, with S&P 500 futures last down 0.22%.
The U.S. job market ushered in a "good start" in 2022: 467,000 new non-agricultural jobs in January far exceeded expectations
The data far exceeded market expectations
In fact, although economists surveyed by the media generally expected an increase of 150,000 people in this non-agricultural data before the release of the data, the forecast range is extremely large (between -400,000 and 250,000). However, even the strongest market expectations are not the final actual performance of this data.
Some industry insiders even worried that the non-agricultural data may fall into negative values beforehand, and even the White House issued a warning earlier this week. Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Tuesday that the data collection date for the January nonfarm payrolls report includes a peak in sick absences after public holidays. The figure could be "confusing" as losses due to Covid-19 would be registered as unemployment.
Prior to this, the ADP data released on Wednesday, known as "small non-farm farmers", also showed a sluggish performance. Private payrolls fell by 301,000 jobs in January, the first decline since December 2020, after an increase of 776,000 in December. Economists had expected private payrolls to rise by 207,000.
The U.S. job market ushered in a "good start" in 2022: 467,000 new non-agricultural jobs in January far exceeded expectations
However, the final strong performance of non-farm payrolls undoubtedly indicates that these prior worries are unfounded. Following the release of the non-farm payrolls data, U.S. federal funds futures pointed to a 35% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March, up from 18% previously.
The U.S. job market ushered in a "good start" in 2022: 467,000 new non-agricultural jobs in January far exceeded expectations
At present, there are various signs that the Fed may be a certainty in raising interest rates in March, and the suspense is only whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was "eagle-like" at the rate meeting at the end of last month, suggesting that the Fed is ready to raise interest rates in March, and does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates at each policy meeting in the future to deal with the tens of thousands. annual high inflation.
Analyst Douglas Zehr said, "The question now is whether such a strong report will make people talk again about raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March. We doubt the Fed will take such action, but the market may be pricing in some opportunities."
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2022-02-09
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