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The yen's fall triggered intervention that threatened to extend the dollar's gains from last week

2023-09-26
539

  The yen neared the closely watched 150 yen level against the dollar on Monday, keeping traders focused on intervention after the Bank of Japan and Governor Kazuo Ueda dampened hopes of an imminent exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy.

  In currency markets overall, the dollar strengthened, extending gains from last week after the still-hawkish Federal Reserve unexpectedly signaled U.S. interest rates would need to stay high for longer than initially expected.

  The yen fell to a more than 10-month low of 148.49 yen against the dollar, but remained close to 150 yen, a level that some market watchers see as a floor for possible currency intervention similar to last year's.

  On Friday, the yen fell more than half a percent after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and stuck to its dovish stance, while Governor Kazuo Ueda similarly stressed the need to take more time to assess data before raising rates.

  "I don't think the level of the exchange rate will matter much, it will be the trigger [for intervention]. I think the pace of change is more important... But I do think the risk of intervention is higher at the moment given all the warnings from Japanese officials." "Said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

  "Also, because of some comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen the other day where she basically gave the green light for the BOJ to intervene, the chances of coordinated intervention are higher."

  Ms Yellen said last week that whether Washington would be understanding of another Japanese intervention to buy yen "depends on the circumstances".

  In other markets, the euro rose 0.04% to $1.0649 after falling to a six-month low of $1.0615 on Friday.

  The euro is on track to lose about 1.8 per cent this month, its biggest monthly decline since May.

  The pound was steady at $1.2244 after falling more than 1 percent last week on the back of the Bank of England's pause in its rate hike cycle, a decision that came a day after data showed an unexpected slowdown in Britain's high inflation rate.

  The pound fell more than 3% in September, its worst monthly performance in a year.

  "Central banks in the UK, the eurozone and Japan have turned and run." "They are now testing the idea that their slowdown signals the failure of their inflationary impulse, or that the slowdown has gotten so bad that they no longer want to risk more tightening," said Thierry Wizman, global currency and rates strategist at Macquarie.

  "And because the U.S. has not yet shown the lackluster growth seen in the rest of the world, the U.S. is isolated and the Fed has signaled that it can take risks."

  While the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting last week, Fed officials warned on Friday that further increases were ahead. Markets now see about a 21 per cent chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting.

  The dollar index hit a more than six-month high on Friday and was trading at 105.57 in early Asian trade.

  The Australian dollar rose 0.06 percent to $0.6445 and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.05 percent to $0.5958 after hitting a roughly three-week high of $0.6001 earlier in the session.

The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.

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