The world situation continues to heat up, institutions continue to be bullish on the oil market

​​Factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine support oil prices. Global central banks to raise interest rates, economic growth and other factors limited oil prices higher. As supply and demand remain tight, oil prices remain optimistic in the medium and long term. In addition, the U.S. hurricane season is about to begin, and based on past experience, the Gulf Coast will be at greater risk. And for the Gulf of Mexico, which provides nearly half of U.S. refining capacity, the hurricane could further exacerbate a shortage of U.S. fuel supplies, triggering a new round of skyrocketing prices.

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OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said that all but 2-3 members have reached their limits in terms of oil production. He further elaborated on a speech he gave at a conference held by RBC Capital Markets in New York on Tuesday; the world needs to accept the harsh fact that this is a global challenge and that industry memory is under-invested and needs urgent To turn this around, the multiple global crises in energy, climate and geopolitics require comprehensive and sustainable solutions.

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With the advent of the summer oil consumption peak in the northern hemisphere and the hopeless short-term return of Russian and Iranian crude oil, the average price of crude oil may continue to remain high this week under the continuation of the supply shortage pattern. In the short-term, the market still maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the inflation trend of the United States and Europe, and inflation expectations are still strong. From the perspective of the service industry PMI of overseas economies, the downward inflection point trend is still not smooth, which means that the current terminal demand for oil products is still strong, and supports the continued strength of oil prices in the short term.

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Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have raised their oil price forecasts for 2022 and 2023. Citi raised its Brent crude oil price forecast by $14 to $113 a barrel for the second quarter, $12 to $99 a barrel for the third quarter and $85 a barrel for the fourth quarter, due to tighter market balances. The average price in fiscal 2023 is $75 a barrel, $16 higher than the bank’s previous forecast.

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Goldman Sachs also said in a June 6 report that oil prices need to rise further to normalize unsustainably low global oil inventories. Brent crude oil prices are expected to be $140/bbl in the third quarter, $125/bbl previously expected, $130/bbl in the fourth quarter, $125/bbl previously expected, and $130/bbl in the first quarter of 2023 , previously expected to be 115 US dollars / barrel.