The U.S. dollar index has fallen continuously since November, but the RMB has performed strongly. The industry expects that the RMB exchange rate may continue to rise steadily next year.

The U.S. dollar index has been falling since last month, while the yuan has performed quite strongly. Recently, the central parity rate of RMB has fluctuated slightly around 7.1. On Wednesday, the central parity rate of RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1002 yuan per US dollar. Onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates also fluctuated downward.

The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 3% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since November last year. Not long ago, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. This is also the third consecutive time since September this year that the Federal Reserve has kept this interest rate range unchanged. It is worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell released a "dovish" stance at the press PO conference, saying that interest rate cuts have begun to enter the field of view. Looking to the future, interest rate cuts have inevitably become a theme. Some traders expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates as early as March next year. The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts next year has caused the U.S. dollar index and long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields to fall sharply. The U.S. dollar index has continued to fall by nearly 2 percentage points since this month.

Since November, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened significantly, regaining the "7.3" and "7.2" marks one after another. Not long ago, both the offshore RMB and onshore RMB exchange rates once rose above the "7.1" mark. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center authorized by the People's Bank of China, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1002 yuan per US dollar on December 27. The central parity rate on the previous trading day was 7.0965 yuan, a one-day depreciation of 37 basis points. The opening price of the onshore RMB was 7.142, slightly higher than the closing price of the previous trading day; the opening price of the offshore RMB was 7.1435, slightly lower than the closing price of the previous trading day. As of press time that day, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was at 7.144, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was at 7.1453.

Looking forward to 2024, Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out at the Macroeconomic Hot Issues Seminar of the Macroeconomic Forum of Renmin University of China that the RMB exchange rate may rise steadily next year. On the one hand, the external environment is expected to improve. U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index are likely to fall moderately next year under the premise of two-way fluctuations; while the endogenous power of the domestic economy will strengthen. Recent data shows that economic growth expectations are gradually improving, and financial accounts may With the significantly improved international balance of payments situation, the pressure on RMB depreciation may be significantly weakened or even reversed. "Under an optimistic scenario, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will rise steadily in 2024, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to reach 6.7-6.8 by the end of next year."

Guan Tao, a macroeconomic analyst at Bank of China International Securities, gave three possibilities: With China's economy recovering relatively well, the U.S. economy soft landing, and the Federal Reserve continuing its tightening stance, the RMB may rise and fall against the U.S. dollar, with a volatile trend. ; The more optimistic expectation is that China's economy will continue to rebound for the better, the Federal Reserve will make a sharp turn, and domestic and external favorable factors will support the continued strength of the RMB; the relatively pessimistic one may be that the risk of reflation will appear in the United States in the second half of 2024, and the Fed's tightening expectations will increase, reappearing in 1995. In this situation, the RMB exchange rate may continue to be under pressure.