The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has triggered a chain reaction

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Oil prices rose 2% on Friday, but fell for the second week in a row after countries announced plans to release strategic oil reserves; Brent closed up $2.20, or 2.19%, at $102.78 a barrel; U.S. crude rose $2.23 to a $98.26 a barrel. This week, Brent oil fell 1.5% and U.S. crude fell 1%; for weeks, benchmark crude has been in the most volatile state since June 2020; International Energy Agency (IEA) members will release 6,000 over the next six months 10,000 barrels of oil reserves, the United States will also release 60 million barrels of oil reserves, which is part of the release plan of the 180 million barrels of oil reserves announced by the United States in March; even if oil prices are around $100 per barrel, the emergency oil release this time The reserves could prevent producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S. shale producers from accelerating output increases.

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Bets on a quick rate hike by the Bank of England weakened against the pound. The pound was also dragged down by the euro's weakness after Western nations said fresh sanctions on Russia were needed. Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said he did not believe business and consumer expectations for persistently high inflation were becoming so ingrained that a rate hike might not be needed to counter it. Cunliffe is a well-known dovish and the only policymaker to vote against the Bank of England's rate hike to 0.75% from 0.5% on March 16. After his remarks on Monday, money markets held on to expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike to 1% in May.

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EUR/USD fell 1.60% to 1.0867, hitting a one-month low of 1.0847. There is no sign of a negotiated truce in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukraine wants sanctions on Russia that are economically damaging enough to end its war. The EU ban on Russian coal is expected to take effect in mid-August, according to sources. But at a time when the simplest sanctions options have been exhausted, European countries are clearly divided on what to do next. Ukraine has accused some countries of still prioritizing the importance of money over punishing the killing of civilians.

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The Bank of Japan seems happy to see a weak yen, shrugging off the notion that the yen's recent decline will push up import costs and hurt the Japanese economy. Asahi Noguchi, a member of the Bank of Japan's review board, said that for Japan's export-oriented economy as a whole, "although it is true that some areas may be affected by a weak yen, the benefits of a weak yen outweigh the disadvantages." The weak yen was once thought to boost exports. , but has now become a headache for Japanese policymakers, as a weak yen further increases the cost of imports at a time when the war in Ukraine has already pushed up fuel and raw material prices.

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The 10th is the polling day for the first round of the French presidential election. There are 12 candidates in this round of voting, of which Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon are the three most popular candidates. As of April 8, the polls showed that French President Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking re-election, leads the polls with 26% approval rate. The French "National League" candidate Marine Le Pen came in second, with 25% support, which is quite close. The third is Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the "Indomitable France" party, with 17.5% of the support, far behind the first two candidates. Recently, the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to rising prices and a decline in the purchasing power of the French. Macron’s approval rating has gradually declined, while Le Pen’s approval rating has begun to climb. Before the election, the support ratings of the two people began to approach, which added a lot of suspense to the general election.

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This week, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal on quantitative tightening, Western countries imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen's rise in the polls put pressure on risk sentiment, and the dollar rose. Looking ahead to next Thursday's ECB meeting on interest rates, no change in policy setting and forward guidance is expected, but policymakers are likely to express concerns about inflation, with the ECB expected to end its asset purchase program and raise interest rates in July , but the support for the euro is limited.

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The United States and NATO continue to provide Ukraine with more weapons and equipment. Several former U.S. military figures said that the actions of NATO and the United States make people question whether the West really wants to resolve the Ukraine crisis peacefully. Former U.S. Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kvyatkovsky believes that NATO is certainly not trying to resolve the crisis peacefully, and they are not helping the Ukrainian people. The United States seems to want to continue to contain Russia on the Ukraine issue, at the cost of people's lives. Former U.S. Defense Department official Michael Maloof said on the Russia-Ukraine conflict that as long as the U.S. continues to supply Ukraine with weapons, the fighting in Ukraine will continue and more people will die on both sides. The goal of the West is to contain Russia. Behind the Ukraine crisis is America's desire to maintain a unipolar world.

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The Japanese government and the ruling party are coordinating in response to rising fuel prices and plan to suspend the activation of the "trigger clause" that reduces part of the fuel tax. Relevant sources disclosed the news on the 9th. The government and the ruling party believe that there are many problems, such as people avoiding purchases or rushing to buy and other circulation chaos, and the increased business burden of gas stations, etc., and it is not realistic to activate the clause. As an alternative, it will explore raising the ceiling on subsidies paid to refiners from the current 25 yen (about 1.3 yuan) per liter.