The Reserve Bank of New York will keep rates on hold until November and the middle of next year

　　The RBNZ will keep its overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.50 per cent for the fourth time in a row at Wednesday's policy meeting and hold it there until at least mid-2024, according to a Reuters poll, later than forecast in a poll taken before the October policy meeting.

　　While inflation slowed to a two-year low of 5.6 percent in the third quarter from 6.0 percent in the second quarter, it remained well above the RBNZ's 1 percent to 3 percent target range, providing justification for the central bank to keep rates on hold.

　　Sharon, chief economist at ANZ, said: "We expect the RBNZ to be careful to keep all options open and emphasise that the next rate move could be either a hike or a cut, and that they are in data-dependent mode." Judging by recent data, they may have a little less to worry about than they once did. But there is still a long way to go and the RBNZ will be very aware that the job is far from done."

　　All 28 economists in the Nov. 20-23 survey predicted the RBNZ would keep its overnight lending rate at a near 15-year high of 5.50 percent at its Nov. 29 meeting.

　　Among New Zealand's biggest banks, ANZ and ASB Bank expect rates to remain unchanged until the end of 2024. The Bank of New Zealand and Kiwibank believe rates will remain unchanged until the end of March. Westpac expects another rate hike in February, and then rates will remain at 5.75 per cent until the end of 2024.

　　The survey's median forecast is for the RBNZ to cut interest rates for the first time by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent in the third quarter. Among economists with a long-term view, 58 percent (15 out of 26) forecast at least one quarter-point rate cut by the end of September.

　　That is a quarter later than the rate cut forecast in the survey before the last policy meeting on Oct. 4. Interest rate futures point to a first cut in July.

　　The US Federal Reserve is currently expected to cut interest rates in the second quarter of 2024, while the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not cut rates until the third quarter of next year.

　　Mr Uddy, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said: "They [the RBNZ] will be looking at the domestic Labour market and domestic inflation. These factors (not what the Fed does) will convince the RBNZ that they need to start cutting rates. If we get further evidence next year that inflation is more stubborn than it currently looks... The RBNZ is likely to raise rates further. It's certainly on the table, but we don't think it's the most likely outcome."