The news interferes with short-term fluctuations, and the center of gravity of oil prices in the medium term moves down

Short-term fluctuations in oil prices are disturbed by bullish and bearish news:

The recent Biden administration's consideration of additional strategic crude oil reserve inventory, purchase of reserves at $80 oil price, and related rumor-refuting statements are the main clues to the near-end oil price volatility.

The medium-term logic of oil prices is clearer:

1. With the slowdown of overseas economies and the tightening of central banks in the United States and Europe, financial attributes may continue to weaken, causing greater downward pressure on oil prices in the fourth quarter.
2. With the recovery of crude oil supply and the significant slowdown in demand, the pressure on commodity attributes has gradually increased, and the stock index support has gradually moved down due to the rebound in inventories.
3. At present, the main uncertainty comes from geographical attributes. The specific manifestation is Putin and Biden's reverse demands for oil prices, which has resulted in a series of intertwined geopolitical events. For example, Iran nuclear negotiations, Saudi Arabia's statement on production reduction, EU sanctions on Russia, European energy crisis, export price ceiling, etc.

Overall, oil prices are still in a slow downward trend. However, it is necessary to pay attention to short-term news interference and the risk of small-probability extreme events.

1. Upside risks: The near-end armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the escalation of the second-phase conflict with Greece, currently has little impact on oil prices, but it is necessary to guard against the possibility of conflict expanding.
2. Downside risks: The current global debt level has reached 3.5 times GDP. The tightening of overseas central banks has increased debt repayment pressure. Once the debt crisis triggers a financial crisis, it may cause a short-term rapid downward pressure on oil prices.

From a technical point of view, the downward trend of oil prices is good, and the rebound failed to effectively break the downward trend line; MACD runs below the 0 axis and the volume and energy are increasing, the RSI continues to decline, and the short-term indicators have not fully released the downward movement energy.