The international oil market retreated briefly, and the market adjusted crude oil prices

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The Indian government is considering a Russian proposal to use a system developed by Russia’s central bank for bilateral payments; India seeks to buy oil and weapons from sanctioned Russia. The scheme involves the use of Russia's messaging system SPFS for rupee-ruble-denominated payments. No final decision has yet been made and discussions could be held during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's arrival in India on Thursday for a two-day visit. The people familiar with the matter requested anonymity because of confidentiality matters. Rubles will be deposited in an Indian bank and exchanged for rupees; or vice versa. Uncertainties include whether the exchange rate is fixed or floating. Russia also wants India to link its Unified Payments System (UPI) with Russia's MIR payment system so that Indian and Russian bank cards can be used seamlessly. Visa Inc. and Mastercard previously suspended operations in Russia.

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Philadelphia Fed President Harker said on Tuesday that he supports a series of "methodical" interest rate hikes of 25 basis points, but he is open to a 50 basis point hike if inflation does not show signs of easing soon. Global supply chains are taking a fresh hit, and if inflation data doesn't improve, "I'm open to sending a strong signal at the next meeting of a 50 basis point hike." Harker believes the Fed should be careful not to go too fast and not want to put the brakes on the current economic expansion. But said the Fed needed to raise interest rates "as soon as possible" to a neutral level, which he estimated at around 2.5%, and further tighten financial conditions by starting to shrink its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet "as soon as possible."

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International oil prices have been experiencing violent turbulence in the past month or so, but the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the pricing of global energy trade may only just be revealed. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, is likely to raise the price of its key crude oil to record levels, a new industry survey showed on Tuesday. Saudi Arabian oil major Aramco may raise its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil destined for Asia in May by $5/bbl, which would be $9.95/bbl above the average price of Oman/Dubai crude, the Middle East benchmark. bucket. In early March, Saudi Aramco raised the price of its flagship crude oil shipped to Asia in April to a premium of $4.95 relative to Oman/Dubai crude oil, which is already the official selling price (OSP) of Arabian light oil relative to the Middle East benchmark crude oil. Biggest premium ever.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released a "10-point plan to cut oil use" in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the consequent threat to global energy security. Oil and gas prices have been rising steadily to record levels for months, but the Brent benchmark stunned the industry by jumping to $131 a barrel on March 8. In addition, reliance on Russian oil and gas exports means that the world is experiencing shortages, and governments and oil majors are exploring potential ways to increase production in other parts of the world to fill the gap.

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Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G-10 foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America, said the different prospects for economic growth and monetary policy tightening will keep the euro under pressure against the dollar. The euro is expected to fall to $1.05 in 2022; the median forecast for the fourth quarter in a Bloomberg survey is $1.14; the current spot rate is near the $1.11 level. Even if the war in Ukraine does not escalate, the fact is that the economic outlook for the Eurozone has been greatly damaged, and as long as the war continues, we believe the risk for EUR/USD is skewed to the downside. The Fed's terminal rate is expected to be much higher than the ECB; the Fed rate is 3.25%, and the ECB is 0.75%; basically, the US economy is overheating, while the euro area economy is affected by negative shocks.

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The March non-agricultural APD employment data that the U.S. market is concerned about slightly exceeded expectations. After the data was released, the spot gold price was exhausted, continuing the intraday upward trend, with a short-term increase of US$5. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson: Job gains across industries were broad in March, contributing to the nearly 1.5 million jobs added in the first quarter of 2022. Businesses are hiring, especially among service providers, who have the most to make up for losses early in the pandemic. However, tight labor supply remains an obstacle to continued growth in the consumer-facing industry.