The ECB has finished raising interest rates, but won't cut them until at least July next year

　　Economists expect the European Central Bank's rate-raising cycle to be over, but will not start easing until at least July 2024 as inflation fears do not ease, according to a Reuters poll.

　　The 85 economists polled by Reuters on Oct. 12-19 remained uncertain about the timing of the central bank's first rate cut.

　　A majority of 58 percent said the deposit rate would reach 3.50 percent by the end of September, in the third quarter of next year or later. In a snap poll, half of respondents said the first rate cut would come in the second quarter of next year or earlier.

　　The report also showed that 40 percent of respondents still said that the first easing measure will be implemented at the July meeting next year.

　　Christian Siwin, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, said: "Our model suggests a rate cut could come sooner, but we need to see softer data than currently forecast, so I think a September 2024 rate cut is a fairly balanced view."

　　A majority of economists in a separate poll expect the Fed to cut rates before mid-2024.

　　Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics said: "Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but that will not stop Ms Lagarde from sticking firmly to her 'higher for longer' narrative."

　　While inflation in the EU has been trending downward, the data showed it was 4.3% in September, still more than double the ECB's target of 2.0%.

　　According to the survey report, inflation will not reach that target until at least the third quarter of 2025. It is expected to average 5.6 percent this year, 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.1 percent in 2025.

　　While countries across the European Union want to avoid a recession, the economy is only expected to be flat last quarter and to do the same again this quarter as borrowing and higher living costs force consumers to rein in spending.

　　Melanie De Bono, of Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "Things are getting worse right now, so it's very likely that all of us will downgrade our forecasts. There's really not a lot going on in the eurozone."