SP500: shock retracement

Fundamental analysis:

The S&P 500 index closed down 14.58 points, or 0.38%, at 3830.24 points on December 27 (Tuesday); as the Fed continues to suggest that it would rather be too much than miss it, it seems ready to accept a recession to ensure that it beats high inflation. Given this situation, there is some upside risk to our forecast of 100 basis points of rate hikes from now on. But given the prospect of a recession and a sharp drop in inflation, the Fed will be able to cut rates in the second half of 2023.

S&P SP500 - 4-hour K-line chart shows:

Brief technical analysis:

Looking at the 4-hour chart: the short-term dynamics fluctuate and move down, the short-term decline may continue, the market as a whole is in a weak position, the MACD indicator is weakly hovering below the 0 axis, and the RSI indicator is weakly finishing below the 50 balance line;

Long and short turning point: 3864

Suppression: 3891, 3915

Support: 3836, 3814

Trading strategy: bearish below 3864, target 3836, 3814

Alternative strategy: Bullish above 3864, target 3891, 3915