Russia-Ukraine Crisis Continues, Oil Markets Rise for Months

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Oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive month, with the Russian-Ukrainian war and the resurgence of the epidemic in some areas making oil prices fluctuated in the month. WTI futures rose 4.4% in April, marking their longest monthly winning streak since January 2018. Germany has signaled it will not oppose the EU's oil embargo on Russia as the war enters its third month, but doubts the move will be the most effective way to hit Putin; energy demand issues are seen as short-term while supply concerns persist Existence, which drives oil prices higher. Next week will be critical as Saudi official selling price will be a litmus test of how badly demand has been damaged; June WTI fell 67 cents on Friday to settle at $104.69 a barrel; June Bren, due on Friday It was up $1.75 at $109.34, while the more actively traded July contract was down 12 cents at $107.14.

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Gold was up about 1% at $1,911.14 an ounce. The dollar fell earlier, but the monthly line is set to end lower as investors bet on aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, which would be the first monthly decline since January; the dollar index fell 0.7 after hitting a 20-year high on Thursday %, making gold less expensive for investors holding other currencies. Data showed that the U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter as new cases rose and government funding for coronavirus relief dwindled, further boosting gold’s appeal; U.S. labor costs rose the most in 21 years in the first quarter, pointing to rising wage inflation. And support the Fed's aggressive monetary policy stance. Market focus now turns to the Fed's two-day policy meeting starting May 3, where officials are expected to raise the target rate by half a percentage point.

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Sergei Bullakov, a member of the United Russia party of Russia, said that German Economy Minister Habeck's statement about refusing Russian oil supplies was a political game. Burlakov said the statement by the German economy minister about "supporting the EU's oil import ban on Russia" and "Germany making progress on oil" was more of a political game, and the game was not backed by in-depth economic analysis. . Burlakov said that if European countries continue to support the embargo on Russian oil, they will have to deal with the consequences themselves, while the United States will just stand by and watch, such a thing has happened many times in world history. Burlakov added that U.S. support for Europe in the absence of Russian oil is just a political gimmick and does not have sufficient economic basis to implement the plan. There is simply no alternative to a Russian oil and gas market of this size. Bulakov said he was also very skeptical that suppliers from other countries wanted to increase oil extraction. These suppliers are well aware that this demand is artificial. German Economy Minister Habeck said during a visit to Poland on the 26th that Germany hopes to find a new oil supply pipeline in the next few days to completely replace oil imported from Russia in order to cooperate with the EU's oil import ban on Russia. Harbeck said that for now, the impact on Germany of stopping Russian oil imports is "manageable."

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The OIS swap corresponding to the Fed's meeting period has begun to be priced. After the 50 basis points of interest rate hike at next week's meeting, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June meeting is close to 50-50. The Fed's OIS in June is currently pricing an interest rate hike of 111 basis points, which is equivalent to In addition to raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May and June, there are 11 basis points. A 106 basis point rate hike was priced at the June meeting at the beginning of the week; expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike at the May meeting remained steady this week. Further out, it is priced at a terminal rate of around 3.30% by mid-2023, up from around 3.20% earlier this week.

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Strategists such as Bank of America Michael Hartnett, citing EPFRGlobal data, said the S&P 500 falling below 4,000 basis points would be a "tipping point" that could trigger a large-scale flight of stock market investors. Investors have already started fleeing stocks, with outflows from equity funds reaching their highest level since March 2020 over the past three weeks. Since the beginning of 2021, $1.1 trillion has flowed into equity funds, and their average entry point is at 4,274 in the S&P 500, which means they need to fall below 4,000 before they can reluctantly exit.

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Several departments in Colorado, the United States confirmed on April 30 that an outbreak of equine flu broke out at the state’s Bureau of Land Management facility in Canon City. As of the 29th, 102 temporarily captive wild horses had died. Preliminary investigations showed that the virus strain was H3N8 Subtype. Pneumonia, characterized by severe pulmonary edema and hemorrhages, was found at autopsy of horses, according to a joint investigation report by multiple Colorado departments.

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The number of cases of childhood hepatitis of unknown etiology in the UK has risen to 145, and multiple possible causes of the unusual increase in the disease are still being investigated. In the past four days, there have been 34 new cases of hepatitis of unknown etiology among children in the UK, bringing the total number of cases to 145, the UK Health Security Agency said. Ten of the patients received liver transplants, and no patients have died so far. The findings suggest that an increase in childhood hepatitis cases may be associated with adenovirus infection. Because the symptoms of these childhood hepatitis cases are not typical of adenovirus infection, experts are still investigating other possible causes, such as new coronavirus infection or environmental factors. At the same time, the UK Health Security Agency said that it is still investigating whether the increase in childhood hepatitis cases of unknown etiology is due to the increased susceptibility to the virus due to the reduction of children's exposure to the virus during the new crown pandemic due to epidemic prevention measures, and whether it is due to changes in the adenovirus genome Wait. A small number of children over the age of 10 are also currently being investigated as part of the survey.