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Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 243,000 in April. What impact will it have on gold?

2024-05-03

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On May 2, market analyst Eren Sengezer wrote an article predicting non-farm payrolls in April and the possible impact on gold prices. The U.S. non-farm payrolls for April will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on May 3 (Friday).

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, stronger than expected. Sengezer expects U.S. nonfarm payroll employment to increase by 243,000 in April. He also believes that a disappointing employment report may have a greater impact on gold than an optimistic employment report.

Among the 35 previously released non-farm payrolls, excluding the data in March 2023, the non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations 10 times and better than expected 25 times.

Sengezer said after analysis that if the non-farm payroll data is lower than the market consensus 15 minutes after the data is released, the price of gold will rise by an average of US$8.33. On the other hand, if the non-agricultural data is unexpectedly better than expected, the price of gold will fall by an average of US$5.04. This finding suggests that investors' immediate reaction to worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls may be more significant.

Basic details of the non-farm payrolls report, such as average hourly wages and labor force participation rate, could have an impact on market reaction. The Fed is sticking to its data-dependent approach, and the key non-farm payrolls data, coupled with these other data, will likely drive expectations for the Fed's next policy move.

Additionally, revisions to pre-non-farm payrolls could distort the impact of recently released data. For example, non-farm payrolls in February 2024 increased by 275,000, far exceeding market expectations of 200,000. However, January's increase of 335,000 was revised to 229,000, preventing the dollar from benefiting from February's upbeat non-farm payrolls data.

The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.

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Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 243,000 in April. What impact will it have on gold?

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