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Multiple board members expect the ECB to continue raising interest rates, with the terminal rate even possibly exceeding 4%.

2023-07-21
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  Governing Council member and Austrian Central bank President Robert Holzmann said that the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to raise borrowing costs by more than 100 basis points to reach the end of the current round of rate hikes.

  Speaking on local television, he said: "Some people hope that the peak rate will be below 4%, but I fear that it will be above 4%." I expect a few more rate hikes. The peak rate depends on how stubborn inflation is. "But core inflation is very, very high, which means we have to have a more sustained rate hike cycle than all of us would like."

  Earlier, Finland's central bank governor Olli Rehn said: "Inflation in the euro area (EARN) is still too fast and the central bank needs to do everything it can to stabilize inflation at its 2% target."

  At the same time, Belgian Central Bank (BEL) Governor Pierre Wunsch reiterated the central bank's meeting-by-meeting approach. He told local media: "If we meet the basic scenario of the forecast, we have a long way to go. In the coming days, we will see the impact of the banking crisis in the United States and Credit Suisse. The base expectation is that the situation will settle down and have no impact on financial markets."

  As for the ECB's interest rate outlook, most institutions expect that monetary authorities will have to continue to raise rates due to high inflation, especially core inflation.

  Rabobank said: "ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that the inflation fight is not over. That said, markets are just not willing to price in higher policy rates again for now. Such a muted response may be the best the ECB can hope for now. When the market returns to calm, the governing council can gradually adjust policy expectations. We expect the central bank to raise interest rates two more times, by 25 basis points each."

  TD Securities said: "The ECB is trying to draw a line between fighting inflation and maintaining financial stability. This is an approach that other central banks are likely to follow. It is rare to see financial turmoil in such a high-inflation environment, and while tighter financial conditions come at a good time for an inflation-fighting central bank, the central bank is unlikely to believe that tighter financial conditions alone will be enough to bring inflation back to target. So rates could still go higher."

The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.

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