The situation in Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, and the market has a violent chain reaction

Due to the further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the overnight market ushered in huge fluctuations. After a period of fermentation and unsuccessful diplomatic mediation, Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine, and then ordered troops to enter the area. In response, the United States and the European Union said they would impose severe sanctions on the two regions and Russia.

Affected by this, the global market has a violent chain reaction, risk aversion dominates the disk trading, Russian stocks and foreign exchange bonds fell in an all-round way, driving the global stock market to plummet, and correspondingly, gold, the king of safe-haven, rose to US$1,910, and the US dollar index approached 96.2 , the dollar also fell against the yen, while oil prices, which were affected by the supply premium, continued to make up.

Putin's move has pushed the situation in Russia and Ukraine into a fever. The larger-scale conflict between Russia and NATO is causing further market volatility. At this critical juncture, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have cooled, and the market has ruled out a 50 basis point rate hike in March.

There is a possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates in 2022. The pattern of strength and weakness is obvious. Gold rose as high as $1,914, reaching the target price we had previously expected. From a technical point of view, the strong pattern of gold prices continues. Yesterday, the 1886 support gained momentum and reached a new high, and the short-term support moved up to the 1900 line. It remained bullish above this support in the day, with the target around 1930; Stepping back on the 1886 platform to find support.

In terms of crude oil, it also began to make up after a deep correction in the previous period. The main reason is that the Iran nuclear agreement still needs some time to negotiate. In addition, the market generally expects that OPEC+ will again refuse to increase production next week, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has deepened. The market is worried that it will affect Russia's exports, thereby causing a supply premium to oil prices.

Once the situation is out of control, it is not ruled out that the United States will speed up the lifting of the Iran nuclear deal in order to stabilize inflation, thereby suppressing oil prices. From a technical point of view, the oil price stepped back on the $88 line to gain support and then rose again. Since there are still many X factors in the oil market, it is also necessary to guard against the oil price peaking as the situation reaches a climax.

At present, the short-term support has moved up to $91.70, and it will continue to rise above this level within days. The target is $95-96 to break out and look higher. If it falls below this level unexpectedly, look at the bottom of $90-88.

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for order construction. Investment is risky, and transactions should be cautious.