JP Morgan economist: The U.S. economy is likely to decline next year

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase China, predicted when attending the 2023 China Wealth Management 50 Forum Annual Meeting (10th) in Shenzhen on the 24th that under the dual pressure of tightening monetary and fiscal policies, the U.S. economy will most likely decline next year. , and may enter a recession.

He further pointed out that the current market’s basic judgment on the Fed’s interest rate policy next year is that it will not raise interest rates again. The market is now mainly discussing when to cut interest rates and how much it will cut next year. "According to the predictions of our U.S. team, the U.S. may start to cut interest rates around June next year, and the cumulative reduction will be 125 basis points." Talking about the trend of the U.S. fiscal deficit rate next year, he said that JPMorgan Chase's current forecast shows that next year the U.S. will face changes from currency and The dual pressure of fiscal policy tightening.