The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in June is 94.8%

Fundamental analysis:

The S & P 500 index fell 44.91 points, or 1.08%, to 4115.77. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in June is 0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 94.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 5.2%; By July, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 25, 50 and 75 basis points is 0%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 83.2%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 16.2%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 150 basis points is 0.6%.

S & P SP500 - 4-hour K-line diagram display:

Technical comments: it has been maintained for a long time in the broad vibration and translation within the index channel of the brin belt, the amplitude space is gradually narrowing, and the brin belt is in a gentle closing trend; MACD index is in a weak position near axis 0; RSI index is in narrow range consolidation near 50 equilibrium line;

Long short turning point: 4127

Pressing position: 4154, 4183

Support position: 4086, 4054

Trading strategy: bearish below 4127, target 4086, 4054

Alternative strategy: bullish above 4127, target 4154, 4183

The above analysis is a personal point of view and is for reference only.