Fed rate hike 50 basis points no suspense, USD/CHF extended weakness

Fundamental analysis:

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 96.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 3.2%; the cumulative rate hike by July The probability of 25, 50 basis points, and 75 basis points is 0%, the probability of accumulative rate hike of 100 basis points is 94.2%, the probability of accumulative rate hike of 125 basis points is 5.7%, and the probability of accumulative rate hike of 150 basis points is 0.1 %

USD/CHF daily chart:

Technical analysis: The daily moving average is in a bearish arrangement, the exchange rate continues to decline, the MACD runs below the 0-axis and the volume is slightly under the 0-axis, and the RSI falls rapidly. It is expected that the short-term exchange rate will likely fall further.

Long-short turning point: 0.9730

Suppression bit: 0.9870 1.0000

Support: 0.9600 0.9480

Trading strategy: bearish below 0.9730, target 0.9600, 0.9480

Alternative strategy: bullish above 0.9730, target 0.9870, 1.0000

The above analysis is a personal opinion and is for reference only.