Is now a good time to buy gold? How to invest in gold and silver jewelry?

　　The months of gold,nine,silver and ten are coming.The harvest season is the busiest time for all kinds of businesses,and it is also the most prosperous consumption period of the year except for the Spring Festival.At the same time,the heat of consuming gold and silver jewelry has just opened.

　　Let's take a look at the latest gold quotation in Taiwan today.How much is one gram equal to?

　　Today's latest quotation,the buying price of one gram of gold is NT$5,630,and the selling price is NT$6,130.The price is slightly lower than that at the beginning of the month.Is this time suitable for buying and selling gold?

　　First,let's take a look at the properties of gold.Contemporary gold is both a financial currency and a physical commodity.Gold and silver jewelry and the investment market are the biggest demand for gold now.Let's take a look at how gold and silver jewelry affects gold.

　　investment properties of gold

　　When it comes to jewelry,young friends must think of European and American luxury goods such as LV and CHANE,but in real life,it is gold and silver jewelry such as Chow Tai Fook that we can afford and consume more.In 2019,China is the world's largest jewelry consumer,with a total demand of 750.295 billion.Jewelry consumption is becoming the third largest national consumption hotspot after housing and automobiles.China has also become an important jewelry producer and consumer in the world.China,accounting for 1/3 of the world market size,with the development of jewelry product diversification and personalized demand,more and more people begin to downplay the concept of jewelry brands,prefer to wear affordable luxury jewelry,and people I especially like personalized jewelry with symbolic meaning.

　　Therefore,the scale of the jewelry customization market is constantly expanding,especially with the rise of the new generation of post-90s and post-00s consumer groups,this demand will become more intense.

　　At present,China,the United States,India,and Japan are the top jewelry consumer countries,and more than 80%of jewelry in China and India is gold and silver-related jewelry.

　　Is it like saying on the Internet that when China and India buy gold,the price of gold will rise?It's not that simple.

　　How does the gold jewelry industry affect the price of gold?

　　The two pictures here,as you can see from the left,the gold jewelry industry is very cyclical,with ups and downs in an orderly manner,but it has nothing to do with the trend of international gold.

　　In the past ten years,the price of gold jewelry has gone through three periods:first,after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008,the Central Bank of China released water,which released liquidity and the market was plentiful,and the whole market flourished.Under the influence of multiple factors such as slowing growth,falling gold prices and anti-corruption policies,the overall decline of the industry is at the bottom of the shock adjustment.However,after 2017,high-end consumption led to the recovery of the jewelry industry.Later,driven by demand for hedging and anti-inflation,the gold jewelry industry began to flourish again,and it has now expanded to a scale of more than 700 billion.

　　If we look carefully at the gray growth rate line on the right,we will find that it is basically consistent with the trend of international gold XAUUSD.The high growth rate in 2011 just corresponds to the high point of the international gold price,while the slowdown in growth rate corresponds to the gold price.The callback low level.In 2014,the growth rate bottomed out and rebounded.After that,gold started a vigorous bull market,but the entire gold,silver and jewelry industry was only growing at a low speed.

　　Therefore,we can find that although the demand of the gold jewelry industry lags behind the changes in the gold price,the growth rate of the gold jewelry industry is positively correlated with the gold price,and will be ahead of the overall gold price change.

　　The relationship between gold jewelry prices and international gold prices can be roughly summarized as follows:

　　1.In the early stage of gold price rise,consumers generally have a wait-and-see mood,and the consumption of gold jewelry is temporarily suppressed.When the expectation of gold's rise is confirmed,consumers start to buy gold.When the price of gold fluctuates at a high level or falls sharply,consumers are most enthusiastic about buying gold jewelry;

　　2.From 2001 to 2012,the price of gold rose steadily,and the demand for gold jewelry also increased steadily.In 2012-2013,the price of gold plummeted,triggering a rush to buy gold,and the sales of gold jewelry soared;

　　3.In 2018,the price of gold entered a new cycle of rising.In the early stage of the rising gold price,the sales of gold jewelry were temporarily suppressed.Since 2019,the upward trend of gold prices has been basically determined,and the sales of gold jewelry have begun to pick up.

　　Will the peak consumption season drive gold prices up?

　　There are often rumors in the market that"the peak season of gold consumption in China and India at the end of each year drives the price of gold to rise",and even"Chinese Aunt"was once rumored to be the main force driving the rise in international gold prices.Is it true?Let's review two things:

　　The first thing is that when the international gold price plummeted to US$1,340 in 2014,emerging markets such as China,India,Singapore,and South Korea all set off a gold buying frenzy.Chinese aunts went directly to major gold shops to scavenge the goods,but they failed to reverse.The whole gold downtrend,and later even the price of gold fell to a low of$1048.Since the proportion of temporary personal consumption in the entire market is not large,the deviation of volume and price is not in line with economic principles.

　　The second thing,because the New Years in 2020 and 2021 were blocked due to the epidemic,everyone tried to avoid going out and consumption was limited.At the same time,the epidemic also greatly affected the consumption of gold and silver during weddings and festivals.According to data from the World Gold Council,global gold jewellery demand fell to US$16.6 billion in the first quarter of 2020,the lowest level since 2010,but the price of gold soared at that time,from US$1,500 to US$1,700.

　　From these two things,it can be proved that the peak consumption season may not necessarily drive the price of gold up,and the low season of consumption may not necessarily drag down the price of gold.

　　If gold's rise in the first quarter was not driven by consumption,what was it for?According to the monthly performance of gold prices in the past ten years,we found that gold usually performed better in January and February,which is a rule based on the historical trend of gold.

　　3.Future prospects of gold and silver jewelry market

　　Gold has both commodity and currency attributes,and the price of gold is mainly affected by US real interest rates,US dollar credit and safe-haven demand.Specifically,the price of gold is negatively correlated with real interest rates and U.S.dollar credit,and positively correlated with risk.In the early stage,due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the central banks of the world's major countries have started a new round of quantitative easing,and the real interest rate has an obvious downward trend,and zero and negative interest rates will become the norm.At the same time,in response to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the U.S.fiscal deficit has soared,and the currency over-issuance caused by unlimited quantitative easing has weakened the credit of the U.S.dollar.In addition,the Sino-US trade friction and the risk of de-globalization will bring great uncertainty.The price of gold will start a big bull market in 2020,which may break through the high point of 2011 and the historical water level of 2011 at that time,creating a new a new all-time high.

　　However,as the United States began to reduce bond purchases,the Central Bank of Brazil has raised interest rates several times,and major central banks around the world have begun to signal that they will tighten liquidity.In the future,if you want to invest in gold and silver jewelry at a cheaper price,you need to be more patient.

　　The basic status quo of the jewelry gold and silver market now is that with the increase of per capita income,the consumption power also becomes stronger,but the consumption of gold and silver does not increase linearly with the increase of income.The reason is very simple.Gold and silver jewelry,which are not consumables like toothpaste and toiletries,are not easy to be consumed in large quantities after buying them.Coupled with the high price,it is impossible for everyone to repeat consumption.So even with income growth,the ceiling of the gold and silver market is still relatively obvious.

　　Finally,to sum up,the influence of the gold,silver and jewelry industry on the international gold price is more reflected in the substantial increase and decline in the growth rate.It is difficult for ordinary consumer demand to affect the price of gold.The trend of buying gold jewelry as a family heirloom is passing,so I want to invest in gold.Jewelry may wish to always refer to the international gold price,and wait for a more advantageous time point before starting.