Haitong Futures Crude Oil Daily on January 31: Oil prices staged a V-shaped reversal during the day, and high-frequency indicators performed chaotically

Oil prices staged a V-shaped reversal during the day, confirming the adjustment nature of oil prices falling back from highs. Before the rebound in the night session, oil prices quickly fell back to nearly $3.5 after peaking on Monday. This performance shows that investors' expectations for oil prices are still swinging sharply. Oil prices have fluctuated sharply at high levels. On the one hand, there is a need for adjustment after continuing to rise last week. The overall decline in the commodity market at the beginning of the week and the cooling of market risk appetite also affected the performance of oil prices. At the same time as oil prices fluctuated sharply, high-frequency indicators performed chaotically and the direction guidance was unclear.

The latest information from the crude oil market on Tuesday caused the market to hesitate again. Saudi Aramco said that the government has asked it to stop increasing its daily oil production to 13 million barrels and instead maintain it at 12 million barrels. The news attracted market attention on Tuesday. The positive side is that Saudi Arabia The negative side of stabilizing the oil market means that the demand side doesn't need as much supply. The news did not bring clear guidance to the market, and oil prices continued their volatile adjustment trend. Hochstein, the U.S. special envoy for energy security, said that oil demand and supply are "well balanced" and that oil supplies from the United States, Brazil and Guyana have increased significantly. He emphasized that from a supply perspective, the Red Sea conflict is "controllable" and believes that the price reflection of the oil market is precise. The continued replenishment of strategic crude oil reserves by the United States is also a recognition that the current oil price is "appropriate" to some extent.

API data in the early morning showed that the crude oil inventory reduction exceeded expectations, and the performance of refined oil products was also better than expected, which is generally bullish for oil prices. Although the current oil price has fluctuated significantly as expected, investors have been facing disruptions to the supply side due to the geopolitical situation since last week. Investors' concerns about this have increased significantly compared with the beginning of the month. Oil prices have stabilized after a rapid correction, and strong oil prices will continue to be the main rhythm. , pay attention to the results of the long-short game at key points and participate with caution.

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[1] WTI's main crude oil futures closed up $1.04, or 1.35%, at $77.82/barrel; Brent's main crude oil futures closed up $0.67, or 0.82%, at $82.5/barrel; INE crude oil futures closed down 0.08% , quoted at 588.5 yuan.

[2] The U.S. dollar index fell 0.07% to 103.4; the U.S. dollar against the yuan on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell 0.01% to 7.1647; the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond fell 0% to 111.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.35% to 38467.31.

Recent news

[1] White House official: The United States will resume restrictions on Venezuela’s oil industry unless Venezuela allows all opposition presidential candidates to run in this year’s election. On January 30, local time, the U.S. State Department issued a statement stating that it had decided not to renew General License No. 44 for Venezuela. The license, which temporarily authorizes U.S. transactions related to the Venezuelan oil or natural gas industry, expires on April 18, 2024.

The United States is seeking to purchase approximately 3 million barrels of U.S.-produced sour crude oil, due for delivery in June, to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

【2】Saudi Aramco: Has been ordered to stop production increase projects

Saudi Aramco said the government had asked it to stop increasing oil production to 13 million barrels per day and instead hold it at 12 million barrels, months after the world's largest oil producer said it would not be able to increase production due to continued demand from some Asian countries. Growth, it will spend billions of dollars to increase production capacity to higher levels by 2027. Saudi Aramco said in a statement that it would update its capital expenditure guidance when it releases annual results in March. Additionally, the company may also be planning for increased use of natural gas and renewable energy in Saudi Arabia, which would free up more oil for exports. .

[3] Petrobras executive: Red Sea crisis may cause oil prices to exceed $90

Petrobras CEO Jean Paul Prate said oil prices could top $90 a barrel this year if attacks on ships in the Red Sea escalate. Without any escalation, oil prices should continue to trade between $70 and $90 this year. He said Petrobras was not affected by the attack because it does not transport large amounts of oil through the gulf. Additionally, he added, Brazil would help mediate the border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Exxon Mobil has made a series of discoveries worth billions of barrels of oil in the region, allowing Petrobras to invest in oil projects in each of the two countries. Hochstein, the U.S. energy security envoy, said oil demand and supply were "well balanced," with significant increases in oil supplies from the United States, Brazil and Guyana.