Gold trading reminder: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June is still more than 60%, gold prices rise waiting for "horror data"

At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday (March 14), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading around $2,175.95 per ounce. Gold prices rose 0.75% on Wednesday to close at $2,174.15 an ounce, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar as investors held out hope for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June despite sizzling U.S. inflation data, while escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand for gold. constant.

The dollar index fell 0.2% on Wednesday, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

"It's a win-win situation for gold bulls right now, if the Fed cuts rates, gold jumps sharply, and if it doesn't, concerns about inflation could push gold higher," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. He added that gold's gains on Wednesday indicated bargain hunting.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday from a record high set last week, posting their biggest one-day drop since February 13, after a report showed that U.S. consumer prices rose sharply in February, indicating that inflation is somewhat sticky.

But traders continue to bet on a rate cut in June, with a pricing probability of about 66%, compared with 72% before the CPI data was released, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The focus now is on U.S. retail sales (colloquially known as the "scary number"), producer price index and last week's jobless claims, all of which are due to be released on Thursday.

[Market News Analysis]

Gold prices found temporary support near $2,170 an ounce after falling sharply from an all-time high of $2,195 an ounce. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "The current situation for gold bulls is a win-win situation. If the Fed cuts interest rates, gold prices will rise sharply. If they don't cut interest rates, concerns about inflation may push gold prices higher." adding, Gold's gains today suggest bargain hunting.

Will Rhind, CEO of Granite Shares, said: "The market has integrated the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict into prices and has been doing so for some time." He said, "Escalations or new developments will further support gold prices, which is important for concerns about It is important in terms of geopolitical risks."

Economists at ANZ Bank said, "Gold prices came under pressure after U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected. This caused market pricing to fall from 93% to 77% in June. The Fed said it needed more evidence before starting to cut interest rates. Demonstrating that inflation will reach the 2% target. Loose monetary policy will be critical to pushing gold prices higher. The consolidation over the past two days has created resistance near the recent high of $2,195 per ounce. A break above this resistance level may cause gold prices to rise. It is trading above the $2,200/oz range. However, with the RSI indicating overbought levels, a healthy price correction is on the horizon. If a pullback begins, prices could fall back to the key support level of $2,100/oz.”