简体中文
ภาษาไทย
繁體中文
Indonesia
Gold trading reminder: Powell's "Eagle" is overwhelming, gold prices are blocked at the 2400 mark, be wary of the risk of shock peaking
2024-04-17
210
During the Asian session on Wednesday (April 17), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading at $2,384.87 per ounce. Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, closing at $2,382.47 an ounce, with the daily K-line recording a doji as safe-haven demand brought about by ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset expectations for fewer U.S. interest rate cuts this year.
Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said, "The market is in pause mode waiting for the other shoe to drop in the Israel-Iran conflict. If the situation escalates, you will see gold rise again. If the Middle East conflict de-escalates, the market focus will shift The Fed. The Fed is clearly unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, which is a bearish factor for the gold and silver markets.”
However, Deutsche Bank predicts that gold prices will reach $2,400 per ounce by the end of the year and $2,600 in December 2025.
Western countries plan to quickly impose new sanctions on Iran to dissuade Israel from countering Iran
Western countries plan to quickly impose new sanctions on Iran to help dissuade Israel from a major escalation. Israel's war cabinet postponed until Wednesday a third meeting to discuss how to respond to Iran's first-ever direct attack, which had been scheduled for Tuesday.
An Israeli government source said a war cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday had been postponed to Wednesday, without elaborating.
U.S. President Joe Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend that the United States will not participate in Israel's counterattack against Iran.
The United States and European allies worked together on Tuesday to tighten economic and political sanctions on Iran in an attempt to prevent Israel from retaliating on a massive scale.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the United States will use sanctions and work with allies to continue to deter Iran's "malign and destabilizing activities."
She told a news conference in Washington that all options to disrupt Iran's "terrorist financing" are on the table and she expected further sanctions on Iran to be announced in the coming days.
U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan said that the United States will impose new sanctions on Iran in the next few days.
Josep Borrell, Vice President of the European Commission and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, spoke after an emergency video conference of EU foreign ministers and said that some member states have requested the expansion of sanctions against Iran and that the EU's foreign affairs department will begin to discuss this proposal. commence to work.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said earlier on Tuesday that several EU member states had pledged to consider extending sanctions again and said she would travel to Israel within hours to discuss how to prevent an escalation.
British Prime Minister Sunak told Netanyahu in a phone call on Tuesday that escalating tensions in the Middle East was in no one's interest and would only exacerbate insecurity in the region, so it was time for "cooler heads to prevail," his office said. The moment of success."
Sunak said on Monday that the G7 was developing a package of measures against Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin urged all parties in the Middle East on Tuesday to avoid actions that could spark new confrontations, the Kremlin said, warning that they would have catastrophic consequences for the region. The Kremlin said Putin had a phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and discussed "Iran's retaliatory measures."
This is Putin's first public comment on the Iranian attack. He said that the root cause of the current instability in the Middle East is the unresolved conflict between Palestine and Israel.
"Putin expressed the hope that all parties would show reasonable restraint and prevent a new round of confrontation from having catastrophic consequences for the entire region," the Kremlin said.
Affected by concerns about the geopolitical situation, spot gold once hit around US$2,398.14 per ounce on Tuesday. However, due to profit-taking by some bulls and hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials, gold prices gave up gains late on Tuesday and closed at US$2,382.47 per ounce.
Fed policymakers believe they need to let the bullets fly a little longer for restrictive policies to take effect
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and many other policymakers were tight-lipped on Tuesday on when they might cut interest rates. Instead, they said monetary policy needs to remain restrictive for longer, pouring cold water on hopes of a sharp rate cut this year.
Since the start of the year, Fed policymakers have said a rate cut would require "more confidence" that inflation is falling back toward its 2% target, but data over the past few months suggest price pressures may even be working in the opposite direction. .
"Recent data clearly do not give us greater confidence; rather, they suggest that it may take longer than expected to achieve such confidence," Powell told a forum in Washington. This may be Powell's last public appearance before the April 30-May 1 policy meeting.
"For now, given the strength of the labor market and the progress made so far on inflation, it is appropriate to give restrictive policies more time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us," he said.
Fed policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at the upcoming meeting, but until earlier this month, analysts and investors expected the Fed could cut interest rates for the first time by 25 basis points at its June 11-12 meeting and by the end of 2024. There will be two more rate cuts.
Now, the market is expecting a first rate cut in September, and the possibility of a second rate cut during the year is declining.
"If inflation continues to remain elevated, we can maintain current restrictive levels for as long as necessary," Powell said. "At the same time, if the labor market softens unexpectedly, we have plenty of room to ease policy."
In addition, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson made no mention of cutting interest rates in his speech earlier on Tuesday. He said that if inflation fails to fall as expected, the Fed is prepared to maintain tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time.
Jefferson pointed out that the current situation faced by the Fed is that the economy is strong and there has been little progress in lowering inflation recently, but he did not mention a common refrain from Fed officials in their speeches: to cut interest rates after they are more "confident" that inflation will fall.
"My baseline forecast remains that inflation will fall further, policy rates will stabilize at current levels, the labor market will remain strong, and labor supply and demand will continue to return to balance," Jefferson said.
In his last public speech on February 22, Jefferson referred to the Fed's repeated statement in recent communications that if the economy develops broadly in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to start reducing policy restrictions later this year. "This showed that he recognized at the time that the Fed might cut interest rates if inflation slowed.
Analysts and investors have been continuously lowering their expectations for the probability and timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, while the reality that the U.S. economy is still growing strongly in the face of high interest rates makes it difficult for policymakers to assess that monetary policy is "restrictive" and that inflation may be declining. Justify yourself.
Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said, “We believe this is a prudent adjustment of policy communication to a slightly hawkish tone, taking a more neutral stance and reducing the tendency to cut interest rates soon. However, we hope that before cutting interest rates, The basic idea that there is greater confidence that inflation is falling remains unchanged, but what remains unchanged is Powell's interpretation of underlying economic conditions, which keeps us from interpreting his speech as too hawkish overall."
Affected by the hawkish speech of Federal Reserve officials, the U.S. dollar index continued its gains on Tuesday, hitting a five-and-a-half-month high of 106.52 during the session, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit a maximum of 4.696% on Tuesday, a new high in the past five months. . This has hindered the rise in gold prices and even faced further correction pressure in the short term. And if the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate further, gold prices may face the possibility of peaking in the short term.
There are few U.S. data on this trading day, so we need to continue to pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book of Economic Conditions, and pay attention to further news on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.
CM Trade
As a world leading financial trading platform, CMtrade Provides comprehensive one-stop trading services and opportunities for traders.
[Products]
The platform provides over 32 kinds of popular financial products such as forex, precious metals, crude oil, indices, cryptocurrencies and more.
[System]
2 top trading systems CM Trade MT4 / CM Trade APP, powerful and easy to operate
[Service]
Comprehensive market news, professional market analysis, 7*24 hours online customer service
[Advantage]
Low cost, high leverage, flexible one-stop all day two-way trading.
[Authority]
Licensed and strictly regulated by authorities. Traders deposits are independently kept by the bank. Fast deposit and withdrawal. Fair, efficient and transparent trading environment.
Follow us to learn more
Free AccessDaily Trading Strategy
Download Now
CM Trade Mobile Application
Economics Calendar
MoreYou May Also Like
