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Non-farm payrolls data is heavily bearish, gold is driven by structure

2022-02-09

1038

With Federal Reserve Chairman Powell releasing a lot of hawkish signals in the interest rate decision in January, investors' optimism about U.S. economic growth has rebounded, which directly weakened the purchasing power of the gold market, and the gold price ushered in a sharp rise in late January. Rout, the stage has been close to 1780 US dollars since 1853. However, the decline did not put the continuation of the rout to fruition.

Previously, we have been emphasizing the introverted triangle structure formed by the gold daily line. According to the normal introverted structure, the gold price needs to fall below the support of the rising trend line, and accelerate the collapse to 1752 and 1720 to stop the decline. Of course, I can understand the short-term correction. After all, the monthly line is stuck and the line is changed. Repairing in this way is more conducive to the later decline.

Maybe if I say this, everyone is confused. Can't it be continued if it falls directly? My understanding of the K-line is to make a comprehensive judgment from various aspects, and to measure the price trend of commodities in one month from the perspective of time. If the price declines directly, most of these types of prices will accelerate to bottom at the beginning of the month, and maintain the bottom range adjustment in the middle of the month. The tail rose to repair the monthly K line.

Therefore, the rise of gold at this stage is nothing more than paving the way for the later decline. The longer this market correction takes, the more impressive the decline will be! In the next transaction layout, we will continue to adhere to the idea of bearish gold. In addition to the time and technical inertia mentioned above, the US non-farm payrolls data released by the market last week also weakened the value of gold.

The US non-farm payrolls recorded a seasonally adjusted 467,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations of 150,000, the largest monthly increase since October last year. Although the unemployment rate has rebounded, the annual average hourly wage rate has exceeded market expectations. , which directly reflects that the US economic and job market recovery has entered a strong stage, and the beautiful data performance may cause the Federal Reserve to more actively end its loose monetary policy.

After all, Fed Chairman Powell said before that the United States has achieved full employment and will raise interest rates at the March meeting, and does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates at each meeting. Therefore, the beautiful employment data pushed the price of gold to drop by $20 on Friday, and the market's probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in the U.S. interest rate decision in March increased.

In such an environment, the purchasing power of the gold market will only continue to be weakened, but if we want to have a deep rout and fall, I think the time is almost meaningless, but this will not stop us from the pace of the next transaction layout. The market will also announce CPI inflation data (Thursday) during the week. I personally expect that during the data disclosure period, the selling opportunity will gradually appear, so the beginning of the week is nothing but the time to find the top.

Judging from the 4-hour K-line, the short-term adjustment of gold has formed a falling flag-shaped finishing structure. This structure is usually a rising channel after a period of sharp decline, and the selected direction of the channel must be a downward break! This also provides emotional support for the current subject's bearish direction, but for specific participation, we need to pay attention to the short-term adjustment state.

This morning, gold was 2 points short of the initial suppression of 1817. This position is the daily average pressure and the 50% suppression point of the range correction. For intraday adjustments, we should first pay attention to the suppression of this position. Although the position I most want to short is in the range of 1822-1825, the resistance of short-term gold breaking through 1817 is still very large, so if you arrive at this point within the day, you can participate with a small stop loss and do a good job of risk control. Can.

The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.

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Non-farm payrolls data is heavily bearish, gold is driven by structure

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