Mixed non-farm payrolls in December? Gold, dollar swept long and short

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 199,000 in December, well below expectations. The unemployment rate came in at 3.9%, below expectations of 4.1%.

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The U.S. non-farm payrolls report released at 21:30 on Friday evening showed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 199,000 in December after seasonal adjustment, the smallest increase since January last year and far below the expected 400,000. The previous value was revised up to an increase of 249,000 from an increase of 210,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate was recorded at 3.9% in December, which was significantly lower than the expected 4.1%.

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After the data was released, spot gold rose by $5 in the short-term, the US dollar index fell by 10 points in the short-term, and non-US currencies generally rose. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was at 21:32 on January 7th, Beijing time, and 2,049 lots were traded instantly on the buying and selling board in one minute, with a total value of USD 367 million. But then the market reversed significantly, gold finished higher and fell, and the lowest hit below $1,795, and the dollar index rebounded significantly.

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According to institutional analysis, the U.S. employment growth in December was lower than expected due to labor shortages, and employment growth may remain moderate in the short term as the rising number of confirmed cases of the new crown disrupted economic activities. Still, the jobs report paints a good picture of the economy, which ends 2021 on a strong note, even though the public health situation hasn't improved as hoped. Employment growth was weaker than expected in December, likely reflecting labor shortages and anomalies in so-called seasonal adjustments.

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Analyst Chris Anstey said that the market is beginning to interpret this as the Fed can continue to tighten policy, the 10-year Treasury yield has now hit an intraday high, and stock index futures are falling.

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It is worth noting that the statistical time of this report only ends in mid-December, so the latest employment data may not include the situation when the number of new crown diagnoses in the United States has soared, so it is impossible to judge the impact of Omicron on the US job market. .