Everbright Futures: Inflation data rose higher than expected, gold prices were weak and volatile in the short term

On March 12, the COMEX gold price rose 0.48% to US$2,136.40/ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 2404 contract rose 0.88% to 499.06 yuan/gram in night trading.

On Tuesday, inflation data was released. The annual rate of U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI in February was higher than expected and the previous value, recording 3.2%, a new high since December last year; both the monthly core CPI rate and the non-seasonally adjusted annual rate in February exceeded expectations. The renewed rise in February's inflation data may mean that January's higher-than-expected inflation was not a sudden change and that inflation has become more stubborn. In addition, the unexpected rebound in inflation data may further dampen the recent rebound in interest rate cut expectations. Although the market has not changed its expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at next week's interest rate decision, the forecast for the number of annual interest rate cuts may be retreated. Based on the previous emphasis on inflation data by Federal Reserve officials, the market began to worry that February's inflation data may bring the number of interest rate cuts this year to two. After the release of inflation data, COMEX gold prices continued to fluctuate, recording negative prices for the first time after nine consecutive positives. It is expected that short-term gold prices will be weak and volatile under the impact of inflation.