Everbright Futures: Heavy data has been released, and short-term gold prices are on the strong side

On February 29, the COMEX gold price rose 0.49% to US$2,052.80 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 2404 contract rose 0.38% to 483.58 yuan per gram in night trading.

In terms of economic data, the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in January hit the smallest increase since March 2021, consistent with expectations, recording 2.8%, lower than the previous value. Although the monthly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in January was higher than the previous value, the actual performance was consistent with expectations. Due to annual price changes and other reasons, economic data in January is more complex. In comparison, January's monthly core PCE data is less important, and the focus is on the performance of February's core PCE data. After the core PCE data was released, COMEX gold prices rose sharply in a nearly vertical curve, with an increase of about 0.6% in half an hour. In addition, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to February 24 was ahead of expectations, recording 215,000. The outstanding core PCE annual rate performance and the unexpected increase in initial jobless claims boosted the performance of gold prices.

In terms of interest rate cut expectations, three Federal Reserve officials released "dove voices", which greatly comforted the devastated interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate cut expectations may be temporarily stopped and retreated. New York Fed President Williams said three interest rate cuts this year are reasonable options for officials to discuss. This statement may increase the market's confidence that the bottom line of interest rate cut expectations will not be lowered. Boston Fed President Collins said it was too early to tell whether the Fed would cut interest rates in May, which may revive expectations of a May rate cut. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the current rate of inflation is falling far faster than expected, and bluntly stated that the first interest rate cut will be carried out this summer. This statement may improve the market trading environment.

On the whole, the positive performance of the annual core PCE and unemployment data calmed market sentiment, and public statements by Federal Reserve officials comforted market expectations. Interest rate cut expectations may be on the rise, and gold prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.