Economists expect the ECB's first rate cut to be delayed until next September

　　The European Central Bank will not cut interest rates until September 2024, according to a new survey of economists, in a sign that signals from monetary authorities have become more consensus.

　　The latest Bloomberg survey is a change from the last, when respondents saw a rate cut coming in March; However, the forecast for the number of rate cuts was consistent between the two surveys, at three, or 75 basis points.

　　In recent days, several officials have indicated that a rate cut is at least a year away. Martins Hassachs, Governor of the Central Bank of Latvia (LAT), said: "Current economic forecasts are not consistent with a rate cut in the first half of 2024. We'll see what happens in the second half of the year." Bostian Wassler, governor of Slovenia's central bank, said: "The rise in bond yields shows that investors are also accepting that interest rates need to be high for a longer period of time in order to bring inflation down to the 2 per cent target."

　　The survey also showed that respondents expected inflation to slow to 2.7% next year and 2.1% in 2025; Growth is expected to be 0.5 per cent this year and accelerate almost slightly to 0.7 per cent next year.