Crude oil under the shadow of recession is hard to come back!

HIGHLIGHTS:

1. The effect of a stronger dollar intervening in oil prices is immediate;
2. The interest rate hike staged a story of strong pressure on oil prices and a reverse decline;
3. The final result of oil price breaking down hit back OPEC+ with a small production cut;
4. The logic of the disk is that China's demand boosts hedge against recession expectations in Europe and the United States;
5. Follow-up inspection of Brent 83 price support strength, upward repair resistance is heavy, 86-88-90 is under significant pressure in the middle.

While controlling the strong and continuous interest rate hike of the US dollar center, this farce can only exist in the brain supplement link, and the beautiful country can even accept a recession.

After all, the carrying capacity and resilience of the volume are very strong, and as the son of Nasdaq, there is no need to worry too much. The decline will only be a temporary pain. At present, it can not only play a hidden role in hedging some inflation.

Including seeking political correctness, of course Berkshire Hathaway will not go short like the crisis-conscious Dalio hedge fund style, and temporarily suffer the "tragic" quarterly report disclosure to the outside world, just saying that capital has compromised. established under certain conditions.

The follow-up signs of the economy will no longer be affected by inflation. High-quality technology stocks and industry stocks will once again drive US stocks to usher in a strong rise. At that time, the scenery may still be the best.

At present, the world has not yet entered the juncture of energy shortage, but it has come to the juncture where the macro pressure has increased significantly and the dollar is too strong. This kind of strong method can be called no solution, so crude oil is not enough.

During this period, if you take the initiative to cut production and intervene in oil prices, instead of letting the market go through the process of finding the bottom naturally, there may not be much room for exploration. In the end, in fact, the price of crude oil is still very hard, because the price of Brent at $83 a barrel is not lacking. Buyers, who used to be able to buy at high prices, can now buy for every dollar that falls, for example, will attract many buyers, and understand from the perspective of cost compliance and reserves.

On this occasion, the impact of production cuts on oil prices will be put aside for the time being, and the consequences and costs need to be weighed. At least being tough is by no means the best policy. Arms can't bend thighs. According to hawks, at best, it's a civil organization that doesn't even have weapons.

Therefore, to avoid the edge for a while, China's demand boosts the logic, including the influence of guaranteeing the delivery, and the price is relatively firm in the Asian session in the inner and outer markets. However, from the current stage, the dollar is strong, and the overall pressure has intensified abnormally after the fomc meeting. Under the circumstance that market confidence is relatively fragile, it may take time and the conditions of tight energy fundamentals to resonate in the follow-up to have a chance to be better in the fourth quarter. opportunity arises.

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In this case, the main body of the oil price space is currently under pressure, and the key reference price for Brent is 83 81 80 78 76, and it should be difficult for the price to climb to a certain extent.