Global energy-related carbon emissions will continue to grow over the next 30 years

In its International Energy Outlook 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in OECD and non-OECD countries under existing laws and regulations The volume will continue to grow in the next 30 years.

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EIA: Global energy-related carbon emissions will continue to grow in the next 30 years

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In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the EIA expects total energy-related CO2 emissions to increase by 5% (600 million tonnes) in OECD countries (with slow economic growth) and by 35% in non-OECD countries ( 8 billion tons).

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With increased use of renewable energy and reduced coal use in many countries, EIA expects non-OECD countries to have higher average total carbon intensity than OECD countries over the next 30 years because non-OECD countries/regions Regions are likely to continue to primarily use fossil fuels for electricity generation to support their faster economic growth.

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The EIA also projects that energy intensity, or energy consumed per dollar of GDP, will decline globally by 2050. Driven by technology, many economies are shifting away from energy-intensive industries, and improving energy efficiency reduces energy intensity. In non-OECD regions, economic growth leads to a faster decline in energy intensity than in OECD regions. By 2050, the energy intensity of OECD and non-OECD countries becomes more similar, as some non-OECD countries increase their share of less energy-intensive industries and their technology use becomes more similar to OECD countries countries are more similar.

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Emissions-related policies also affect forecasts of energy-related CO2 emissions. The required efficiency, fuel and technology targets are generally more prevalent in OECD countries, resulting in relatively slower emissions growth in OECD relative to non-OECD countries.