Australia's second-largest superannuation fund said an interest rate cut could be delayed until the end of next year

　　Australia's second largest superannuation fund has said interest rate cuts may be delayed until 2025 and believes the battle with inflation by global monetary authorities is far from over as the job market remains resilient.

　　Brian Parker, chief economist at the Australian Retirement Trust, said in an interview with Bloomberg: "It is not ruled out that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the cash rate again to 4.35 per cent, and it is too early to discuss when policy will be eased." It will take many, many months for central banks to be confident that inflation will move decisively towards target and remain there. A big part of that is the labor market. We don't expect to start the easing cycle until late 2024 or even 2025."

　　The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates 12 times to 4.1% as its tightening cycle comes to an end. Policymakers said the bar was higher for further rate hikes, reflecting a recent slowdown in inflation that has pushed the outlook further toward a soft landing.

　　However, Mr Parker still sees a 50 per cent chance of a recession in Australia, and believes the neutral interest rate will be well above its pre-COVID-19 long-term average, saying: "Is monetary policy a drag on the economy? Is monetary policy too tight? Yes, that's true. So, if I may say so, the interest rate is higher than the neutral rate. But in the long run, interest rates will stabilize in the 3-3.5 percent range."

　　On the direction of the agency's A $3.5 trillion ($2.2 trillion) of overseas investments under management, he said: "The focus is on equities in Japan (JPN) and Europe. And sovereign bonds."