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As the divergence in monetary policies intensifies, the yen's decline accelerates.

2023-06-27
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  As the yen drops to the level of government intervention last year, foreign exchange traders are looking for any signs of official intervention.

  As of the time of publication, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen has exceeded 143, the Swiss franc against the Japanese yen has reached a historic high, and the euro against the Japanese yen has also risen to its highest level since 2008.

  The acceleration of the decline was mainly driven by increased policy disagreements between the central bank. On Thursday, after the Bank of England (BoE) unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points, it said that it would continue to raise interest rates, while Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that it might need to raise interest rates one or two more times, driving the yield of Gilt-edged securities and US bonds soaring. And traders expect that any verbal intervention is unlikely to trigger significant fluctuations in the yen exchange rate, and believe that the US dollar/yen will not encounter significant resistance in the process of falling to the 145 level.

  Christina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said: "The stark contrast between the dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other major central banks suggests that the yen appears to be further declining in the short term. A weak yen may prompt further verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities

  Chris Weston, research director of Pepperstone Group, said: "Oral intervention is now a real downside risk. When we heard this news, the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance were actually short the yen, because the actual foreign exchange intervention is imminent. Or, the Bank of Japan can adjust its Yield curve control (YCC), but it seems very unlikely at present."

The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.

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