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After Bank of America, Barclays has also delayed its expectations for the Bank of Japan to adjust the YCC time.

2023-07-14

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Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Barclays, said he had pushed back the timing of the Bank of Japan's policy change from July to October because some of the progress seen on inflation was likely to be temporary and the central bank would not rush into action this month.

"The BOJ has adopted a decidedly behind the curve stance, and at this stage there does not seem to be a need to modify the Settings of yield curve control (YCC) in light of the current improvement in wage and price indicators," he wrote in a note.

Izumi de Valier, an economist at Bank of America, also changed his forecast for the timing of the YCC adjustment from July to October earlier this week, writing in a note: "We are no longer confident enough in our forecast for a July BOJ change in the YCC to make it our base case, although we certainly would not rule it out."

The changes suggest a growing number of economists are unlikely to rush the BOJ into action this month as the central bank's meeting approaches. But the real problem for investors and analysts is that the central bank won't actually act when the market is ready, lest it trigger a major bond sell-off.

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After Bank of America, Barclays has also delayed its expectations for the Bank of Japan to adjust the YCC time.

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