The situation in Russia and Ukraine eases, and a new round of selling is coming

When the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased and the Fed raised interest rates and returned to the market focus, the bullish factors gradually weakened and the bearish factors gradually increased. The two most iconic varieties in the market, gold and crude oil, both fell, and a new wave of selling is on the way. on.

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Recently, as the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish policy unexpectedly in the market, which pushed up the trend of US bond yields, which further weakened the momentum of gold buying, the premium caused by risk aversion began to shrink again, and finally gold prices rebounded in the previous wave. The 38.2% position ($1962) that fell was blocked and fell back, indicating that the bulls' rebound momentum is not strong in this round, and the probability of continuing the decline is still high. In terms of operation, during the day, it is supplemented by highs and lows. The upper resistance is 1937-1960 US dollars, and the lower strong support is 1895 US dollars. If it falls below 1895, a new round of shorts will be opened, and the lower part will look lower.

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Russia and Ukraine continued to release positive signals of a truce. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East also cooled unexpectedly, while the Iran nuclear deal remained in the "imminent" state. Both the short-term supply and demand of oil prices were negative. The global economic recovery is slowing down or even "stagflation" is concerned, and oil prices will face downward pressure on a larger cycle.

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From a technical point of view, oil prices fell back yesterday after rebounding from a strong resistance of $116.3. After falling below the key support of $107.6, the level has turned into a resistance. It will continue to be bearish below $107.6 within a few days, focusing on whether the first line of $102 can effectively fall. If it breaks, then look at the $95 mark.