U.S. trade deficit widens

[Federal Reserve Bostic: The terminal interest rate remains unchanged at 5%-5.25%]

Federal Bostic said in an interview that the slowdown in inflation will determine when the Fed pauses in raising interest rates. He insisted on a terminal rate of 5.0% to 5.25%. Regarding the January jobs report, he called it a big surprise. It's just one data point though, but if the strength continues, it would suggest a less steep slowdown, which would "translate into more rate hikes by the Fed than he currently expects." And if the data is an anomaly (within a six-month period), then he tends to look a little further, there is no need to affect the trajectory of policy.

[The British economy is expected to fall into recession in 2023]

Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja said in a report that due to the general weakness in construction, manufacturing and services, the UK's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to be flat, and GDP in December will shrink to 0.4% month-on-month . Although GDP growth is expected to be around 4.1% in 2022, the UK will slip into a technical recession in 2023, with economic activity expected to decline in the first two quarters, Raja said. He said GDP is expected to shrink 0.5% in 2023, grow 0.8% next year, and surpass its pre-pandemic peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. Raja said that while the UK is expected to remain firmly in negative territory in 2023, they now believe the coming recession will be shorter and shallower.

[U.S. imports rose in December, partially offsetting weak global trade]

U.S. imports rose in December amid higher demand for consumer goods and autos, partially offsetting weakness in global trade late last year and widening the U.S. trade deficit by 10.5%. U.S. imports rose 1.3 percent in December from November, while exports fell 0.9 percent over the same period. Total imports of goods and services fell in the final two quarters of last year, the Commerce Department said, ending a year in which high inflation, Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply imbalances weighed on global demand. Demand for exports such as industrial supplies and consumer goods made in the world's largest economy weakened in December, while Americans bought more foreign-made products such as cellphones and cars.

[Canada’s December trade account exports fell]

The decline in exports was mainly due to lower exports of energy products, while imports were due to lower imports of consumer goods. The decline in Canadian crude oil exports was largely due to lower oil prices, but also in part due to the closure of the Keystone pipeline in the United States following a leak. Exports excluding energy rose 0.8%. A large part of the decline in imports was due to reduced trade in pharmaceuticals, partly due to reduced demand for vaccines and treatments for COVID-19.

[Canada's merchandise trade surplus will expand significantly in 2022]

Canada recorded only its second annual goods trade surplus in recent years in 2022, widening to C$20.1 billion from C$4.6 billion in 2021. Previously, Canada had run a merchandise trade deficit every year from 2015 to 2020. Statistics Canada said exports jumped last year, up 22.1 per cent, thanks in large part to stronger prices, while imports rose 19.8 per cent, with higher prices also playing a role. Led by lower prices for energy products, merchandise exports fell by 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022, recording a second consecutive quarter of decline, while imports fell by 1.4%, the first decline since the second quarter of 2020.

[US trade deficit widened in December]

The U.S. trade deficit widened in December, reversing a sharp contraction in the previous month, as imports rebounded and exports fell further. Data from the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed the trade deficit rose 10.5% to $67.4 billion. Revised data for November showed the trade deficit narrowed to $61.0 billion instead of the previously reported $61.5 billion. The annual trade deficit widens from $845 billion in 2021 to $948.1 billion in 2022. Imports rose 1.3% to $317.6 billion, while exports fell 0.9% to $250.2 billion, mostly reflecting sharp declines in prices.

[UBS: The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates within the year as soon as possible]

UBS economist Dean Turner said in a report that the Bank of England could cut interest rates as soon as the last quarter of 2023 as British economic activity slows, unemployment rises and inflation falls. Partial austerity at 10 meetings. The Bank of England's benchmark rate is expected to peak at 4.25% in March as the labor market remains tight.

[British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak undergoes a small-scale cabinet reshuffle]

According to the British Sky TV report, on February 7 local time, British Prime Minister Sunak carried out a small-scale cabinet reshuffle and split and reorganized some government departments. It is reported that the reorganization involves the change of 5 positions. Downing Street said the reshuffle was to ensure a focus on halving inflation, growing the economy and reducing debt, among other things.

[The RBA is expected to continue raising interest rates twice]

Economists at ANZ Bank said that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.35% as scheduled, and the cumulative interest rate increase since May last year reached 325 basis points, and it is expected to continue to raise interest rates in March and May , and finally raised interest rates to 3.85%. Today's statement conveyed the message of "further interest rate hikes in the future". Given the trend in inflationary pressures, the possibility of a higher interest rate peak cannot be ruled out.