What will the US dollar exchange rate look like in 2021?

　　In 2020,affected by the U.S.recession and the Federal Reserve's ultra-low interest rate policy,the dollar exchange rate fell across the board.At present,the market has reached a consensus that the dollar will continue to weaken in 2021.In March 2020,the Fed announced the start of"unlimited"quantitative easing and cut interest rates by 150 basis points twice.Interest rates and rate cuts exceeded market expectations,triggering a sharp depreciation of the dollar.

　　In addition,with the EU reaching an agreement in July on a recovery fund worth 750 billion euros,the deepening of EU financial integration has boosted investor confidence in the EU and the euro,and the weakness of the euro over the years has brought a reversal opportunity.substantial appreciation.Looking ahead to 2021,the U.S.investment management company AllianceBernstein's chief economist for Greater China,Ji Mo,said that given the difficult recovery of the U.S.economy,the dollar will remain weaker.

　　A trend in the history of the dollar exchange rate

　　Looking back at the overall trend of the US dollar index in 2020,it rose in the first half of the year and fell all the way in the second half of the year,walking out of an inverted parabola.From each quarter:

　　Q1:Appreciation of 2.47%,from 96.50 to 98.95

　　Q2:Depreciation rate 1.57%,down from 98.95 to 97.38

　　Q3:Depreciation rate dropped to 93.82 points from 97.37 points at 3.64%

　　Q4:Depreciation rate 3.41%,down from 93.83 to 90.63(as of Dec.22)

　　The dollar's depreciation against a basket of currencies is expected to fall by 6%for the year so far,in what could be the weakest year since 2017.The dollar's 96-point level at the start of the year is quite stark compared to its current 90-point level.Therefore,this may officially start the long cycle of the depreciation cycle of the US dollar index.

　　How will the dollar exchange rate perform in 2021?

　　As the U.S.economy and asset markets have long outperformed other markets,and the dollar appears overvalued(by around 10%by standard metrics),many investors have increased their holdings of U.S.assets.

　　The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to zero,and its new policy framework will lead to severe declines in long-and short-term real rates.The combination of overvalued values and negative real interest rates makes the prospect of a dollar depreciation even more remote.

　　Coincidentally,Citibank,one of the largest U.S.banks,is also very bearish on the dollar.Citibank said on Monday that widespread distribution of a coronavirus vaccine and continued easing of monetary policy could lead to a 20%drop in the value of the dollar next year.

　　But judging from the trading situation,the market has a strong selling dollar sentiment.Some bank traders said clients,concerned about the dollar's continued decline,began to sell heavily to accumulate dollars,and bank positions remained high.The yuan closed at a daily cap amid a reluctance to leave the dollar.Traders said the central bank's central parity rate was still rising,which could mean that opening trading limits later was not the action of the central bank,which acquiesced to the yuan's appreciation against the dollar.The renminbi may continue to appreciate against the dollar and may hit its ceiling multiple times.

　　The direction of the dollar exchange rate in 2022 and future trends

　　From a Western Securities perspective:Western macroeconomists believe that the US dollar index may fall below 85 in 2022.The rebound in the dollar index this year has been linked to global uncertainty and the first shift in the Federal Reserve.The U.S.dollar index is likely to fall next year as the global outbreak is contained and economic uncertainty cools.In addition,the Fed has a high probability of bias ahead of the midterm elections,which will also restrain the dollar.From 2001 to 2020,the average annual volatility of the dollar was 13.2%.Once depreciated,the U.S.dollar index could fall below 90 next year,with a mid-year low even below 85.

　　CICC's view:The dollar has weakened recently.In the external environment,the US dollar index fell,leading to a collective rebound in non-dollar currencies.The U.S.dollar index fell after hitting 94.52 last week;also,after October,the U.S.dollar was the weakest G10 currency outside the yen.

　　As for the reasons for the recent weakness in the US dollar,firstly,the market has fully priced the Fed currency,secondly,the"overcrowded"dollar bulls have withdrawn,and thirdly,technical adjustments are the main driving force.As for the technical adjustment,on the 13th of this month,the USD speculative bulls were in an extreme position,encountering strong resistance at 94.50 on the same day,in a long-term downward trend from the high since the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020 to the low at the beginning of the year.A 38.20%Fibonacci retracement level has been formed,which has become the previous high.Due to the unsuccessful rise of the US dollar index on September 30,the current trend of the US dollar index is similar to the first quarter of this year,and it is also a rising wedge,Therefore,it is currently considered that the possibility of continued decline cannot be ruled out.

　　Currently,there are three types of QDII(Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor)funds investing in the U.S.market:

　　One is that QDII invests in U.S.real estate trust funds(REITs)and stocks of listed real estate companies.Such as Penghua American Real Estate,GF American Real Estate,Lion Global Income Real Estate,Harvest Global Real Estate,etc.The average income of these four products last year was 24.31%,which performed well.

　　In addition,there are index products,such as Dacheng S&P 500 and Bosch S&P 500,which track the S&P index,GF Nasdaq 100 and Huaan Nasdaq 100,which track the Nasdaq index.

　　In addition,some QDIIs invest in U.S.resource commodities,such as Huabao Industrial Standard&Poor's Oil&Gas,CCB Global Resources,etc.Under the downward trend of resource commodities,it is recommended to prudently allocate commodity QDII products.

　　When choosing QDII,pay attention to fund managers with strong strength and early involvement in overseas markets,and judge their investment experience and management ability by analyzing the overall performance of the fund.

　　In the case of a foreign institution,entry is usually via QFII.If there are RMB quotas in Hong Kong,Singapore and London,it can be entered through RQFII.

　　Currently,there are several popular foreign exchange investment platforms:

　　TMG was established in 1980 and is headquartered in Chicago,USA.TMG is famous for its algorithmic trading,and it is often seen in global investment and financial networks that TMG is building 5.8 billion exclusive servers safely and quickly.Providing network support for institutions,funds and other giants,the trading experience is indescribable.

　　Yingtou is one of the large securities companies with a history of 35 years and equity assets of more than US$4.6 billion.It has been opened to the mainland in recent years,with a long period of time,but most of the registrations have not been settled,which is suitable for large institutions.

　　Established in 1995,OANDA Corporation is a leading Internet currency exchange company and a Canadian company responsible for foreign currency exchange into local currency services.Those who are patient can choose,the threshold is not high.

　　Dukascopy,1998,has an independent trading platform with floating point spreads.

　　FXCM,1999,provides an independent online trading platform,EA and other information services.The slip point now has many reactions,but it doesn't break the whole thing.

　　Mutual market,established in 2021,the world's leading trading service broker,ASIC supervision,customer deposits are deposited in separate trust accounts in accordance with regulatory regulations,allowing 7*24 hours online withdrawal,regardless of account opening,deposit,transaction withdrawal,etc.Any problems You can consult 5*24 hours online Chinese customer service and enjoy high-quality service.