The economic recession in Europe and the United States continues to ferment

[It is estimated that the probability of a recession in the United States next year is 50%]

Economists expect a roughly 50% chance of a U.S. recession next year. According to the minutes of the meeting, sluggish real spending growth in the domestic private sector, a deteriorating global outlook and tightening financial conditions are considered to pose prominent downside risks to the forecast for real economic activity; furthermore, a sustained decline in inflation may require financial conditions to rise above expectations The possibility of a tightening to the extent that it is also seen as a downside risk.

[Federal Reserve meeting minutes will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes]

The latest minutes of the Fed's meeting showed that at the meeting earlier this month, "a large majority" of policymakers agreed that it "may soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of raising interest rates, and now more and more Fed officials joined the rapid tightening of monetary policy. Debating the implications. At its Nov. 1-2 meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. Most policymakers believe they can stop aggressive front-end hikes and move to a smaller, more cautious pace of rate hikes as the economy adjusts to higher credit costs and concerns appear to be growing about "excessive" action.

[OECD warns that the British economy lags far behind other developed countries]

The OECD report shows that since the outbreak, the UK's economic growth has been lagging behind the world's largest economy, far below the organization's average. Across the G7 countries, which include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and the UK, cumulative GDP grew by 2.5%, with only the UK seeing a decline.

[The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December]

Although the euro zone is almost certainly heading into recession, the ECB is expected to continue tightening policy in December, raising deposit rates by 50 basis points amid fears that rapid price increases will become entrenched. Euro zone inflation hit 10.6 percent last month, more than five times the ECB's 2.0 percent target, as energy prices surged following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The ECB initially said the rise in inflation was only temporary and waited until July to start raising rates, later than most major central banks, but has raised its benchmark rate by 200 basis points since then.

[EU 43 billion euro funding plan to become a global semiconductor center]

EU countries agreed on plans to allocate 43 billion euros ($44.4 billion) to boost semiconductor production in the region, clearing a key hurdle in their plans to boost the high-tech industry. That would expand the range of "first-of-its-kind" chipmakers eligible for government aid without making all automotive fabs eligible for the funding, in line with some countries' requirements earlier this fall.

[The euro area is closer to meeting the conditions for inflation to turn into hyperinflation]

Given that monetary policy is becoming more restrictive (especially due to quantitative tightening), wage-price indexation is limited, exchange rates are appreciating, and fiscal deficits are shrinking substantially, it is difficult to maintain the view that the US will experience hyperinflation. In the euro area, however, if wage-price indexation intensifies, if interest rates (real and expected) rise only modestly even as the exchange rate continues to depreciate, and if fiscal policy does not become more restrictive, then the euro could benefit even without hyperinflation. The region's inflation level will also be higher than that of the United States for a long time.