Analysis of the trend of gold against the US dollar and gold against the Taiwan dollar in 2021

　　The gold market in 2021 will be turbulent,and the continuation of the new crown virus epidemic will make gold the first choice for safe-haven assets.Second,as the world's major economies have shown danger signs of high inflation and stagflation after excessive monetary easing,the United States The large economies headed by them began to tighten monetary liquidity by reducing the scale of bond purchases and raising interest rates.As a result,gold was sold by bears.However,the sudden energy crisis in the second half of the year spread to the rest of the world,and coal and natural gas were the main energy sources.The product has driven the prices of oil and a number of precious metals to staggering prices,and gold has regained its upward momentum.Studying the price trend of gold will help us make better investment decisions.This article mainly explains the current and future price trend analysis and prediction of gold against the US dollar and gold against Taiwan dollar,so that everyone can use it as an investment reference.

　　Analysis of the trend of gold against the US dollar

　　Gold,the code is XAU,because the chemical symbol of gold in the periodic table is AU,and X represents"independence"and does not belong to any country,and because gold is priced in US dollars,and the US dollar's code is USD,so gold Against the US dollar is XAUUSD,which represents the price of an ounce of gold in US dollars.

　　Gold was not pegged to the U.S.dollar before.Gold had been the foundation of the capitalist economy for hundreds of years before the abolition of the gold standard.After World War II,the United States established the"Bretton Woods monetary system".Because the U.S.dollar has the status of the most powerful currency center in the world,it has always attracted worldwide attention.The"Bretton Woods monetary system"is to link gold to the U.S.dollar,currencies of various countries to the U.S.dollar,and the U.S.dollar has become a recognized world currency in one fell swoop.So the US dollar has been called"US dollar"since then,and the US dollar has been recognized by the world as a currency like gold.After entering the 1970s,the United States was mired in many wars,making the fiscal deficit bigger and bigger.Hot money and investment funds from all over the world began to look for safer assets and investment environments.Devaluation,which prompted European countries to give up staring at the US dollar,and the price of gold began to float freely,thus giving birth to spot gold,also known as"London Gold".In 2001,the United States experienced the"911"incident,and the price of gold soared worldwide,which made gold's safe-haven function recognized by the world and became the most effective asset against inflation and risks.Since then,gold has opened a super bull market.,The heat wave of gold speculation hits,and speculation in gold has become an increasingly mainstream investment method.Generally speaking,the fluctuation of gold price is easily affected by the geopolitical situation.At the same time,the trend of gold price is also closely related to the degree of economic prosperity and decline in the United States.Usually,gold is inversely proportional to the fluctuation of the US dollar and the stock market,and is mainly related to the non-US currency Euro,British pound and crude oil.is proportional to the trend of commodities.

　　Since the beginning of this year,gold has experienced relatively large fluctuations,from a big drop at the beginning of the year to a big rebound in the middle of the year and then into a state of consolidation at the end of the year.This year,the gold market mainly evolved around"risk"and"policy".

　　Analysis of the trend of gold against Taiwan dollar

　　At present,more and more people in Taiwan are joining the army of gold speculation.Naturally,they are very concerned about the price change of gold against NTD.First of all,the price of gold is the US dollar,so there is no such thing as gold against NTD in the world,but we can Pass the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar,and then get the corresponding price.

　　Taking today(November 8)as an example,the current international gold price is US$1,818.72 an ounce,and the exchange rate between US dollars and Taiwan dollars is 27.8547.Then the international gold"ounce"unit is changed to Taiwan's"money"unit.Today The quotation for physical gold is NT$5,720/money(according to the quotation from Taiwan Silver House).

　　According to the trend chart of gold against New Taiwan dollar this year,the gold price in Taiwan dollar generally showed a slight downward trend.The lowest buying price was 5310 yuan in early March,the highest buying price was 5990 yuan at the end of May,and the lowest price to the highest price was 680 yuan.Floating space,then when is the next best time to buy Taiwan dollar gold?

　　Judging from the average buying price of historical cycles,the closer the price of Taiwan dollar gold is to the average price of the big cycle,the higher the cost-effectiveness of bargain hunting.For example,the average price of gold in the past year was 5,690 yuan,while it was 4,911 yuan in the past five years.It's a good time to invest.

　　After the spot price of gold hit a record high of$2,075 per ounce on August 5 last year(2020),the price has continued to fall in the past year.There are many reasons for the current trend of gold,which can be generally divided into:supply and demand,and risk aversion factors,Fed policy,the trend of the US dollar index.

　　The supply and demand side is divided into supply and demand.The supply side mainly focuses on the production of new gold mines.At present,60%of the market’s supply comes from newly mined gold underground.These new mines have an important impact on the supply side of the gold market;in addition,the selling of central banks is also a key factor.Selling will also have a great impact on the supply and demand of the gold market.Therefore,the central bank’s selling of gold will cause panic among investors,but it needs to be divided into what kind of selling.If it is just for the diversification of asset allocation,it will not affect the market.Big.In terms of demand,it mainly focuses on the demand for physical gold,which mainly refers to the consumer demand in the gold,silver and jewelry market.For example,in China or India,there is a peak consumption season of"gold nine silver ten",including major festivals,which will also play a role in gold consumption.promotion of demand.In addition,in addition to monetary attributes,gold also has its original industrial attributes,such as the demand for manufacturing.When the economic prosperity is high,it usually promotes the consumption level of gold.

　　In terms of hedging factors,gold has been a hard currency since ancient times.When wars come,social and economic collapses and other risky times,buying and holding gold is the most effective way to preserve wealth.Risk aversion is mainly divided into war risk and economic risk.War risk generally refers to the turbulence or local war in the international geopolitical situation.When a cannon is fired,gold is ten thousand taels.Often,the gold market is also very easily stimulated by extreme risk aversion.One-sided rise.The economic risk is mainly the risk of the financial crisis.For example,the major economies led by the United States are currently experiencing high inflation and stagflation.This is a hidden social and economic risk,and it is a factor that will support the rise of gold prices.In addition,the energy crisis is also As part of the economic risk,energy shortages have led to a surge in the price of a series of chemical products,which has pushed up inflation and caused economic risks,and the safe-haven value of gold has also benefited.

　　In terms of Fed policy,the future will mainly focus on the timing of interest rate hikes and the regulation of high inflation.The latest Fed interest rate resolution gave a plan to start reducing bond purchases,but Fed Chairman Powell is also concerned about increasing inflation and raising interest rates.The timetable is indeed ambiguous,and it even emphasizes that reducing debt is not the same as raising interest rates.This move has poured cold water on the market and will form a more favorable time window for gold to rebound.How the subsequent Fed policy evolves will determine the medium-term future of gold.trend.

　　The U.S.dollar index and U.S.bond yields are the two reference bodies that most directly affect the trend of gold.Since gold is priced in U.S.dollars,when the U.S.dollar is in good condition,the actual price of gold will become more expensive,which often causes the price of gold to fall under pressure.Gold is also an interest-free investment product.Investing in gold will not generate any interest.Therefore,once the bond price rises,it will attract more funds to flow out of the gold market and flow into the bond market,so the rise in US bond yields will suppress the golden nightpot.The U.S.dollar,U.S.debt and gold are negatively correlated,which has great reference and guiding significance for us to refer to the future trend of gold.It is necessary to keep in mind that comprehensive analysis is carried out in combination with other influencing factors and international events,and with the help of the trading function of the mutual trading platform,stop loss and profit and advance ambush orders can be used to further stabilize and improve the efficiency of profit.